生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250611

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the price of live pigs will be in a weak and volatile state. The main reasons are that the supply of live pigs will be abundant from the second to the fourth quarter of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. Although the spot price may reach a new low, the price of the 09 contract is considered to be in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On June 10, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 525 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly based on the regression of futures and spot prices and the game of delivery. The far - month contracts are affected by the decline of spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume, showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 1,258 lots today, with a position of about 78,600 lots. The highest price was 13,505 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,475 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes: the farming side has not yet reduced the weight of pigs, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons, and the demand support for pig prices is limited. The bullish logic includes: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be weak and volatile [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters is weak, and it is difficult to support a significant increase in pig prices. If there is a concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may reach a new low. Although the spot price may reach a new low, due to the high uncertainty and the fact that the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract, it is considered that the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On June 10, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.65% compared with the previous day. The average slaughter price in Henan was 14.13 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.58%. The average slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.73% [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of most contracts increased, with the 07 contract increasing by 1.19% and the 09 contract increasing by 0.89%, while the 11 contract decreased by 0.08% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 100 yuan/ton or 22.99% to 535 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking The report provides data charts on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].