化工日报：宏观预期反复，聚酯产业链冲高回落-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Recently, Sino - US economic and trade consultations in London led to a shift in market expectations from optimism to pessimism, and the crude oil price first strengthened and then retreated, causing the polyester industry chain to rise and then fall [1] - The cost - end oil price fluctuates due to market concerns about OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical changes. Gasoline cracking spreads have limited upside, and the aromatics market has seen changes in exports and short - process device operations. PX supply is recovering, and its price spread has declined [2] - PTA supply is becoming more abundant as devices restart, with a slight inventory reduction in June. However, strong polyester production - cut sentiment affects demand expectations. Polyester demand is weak in the off - season, and the production rates of downstream weaving and texturing are declining [3] - PF has weak fundamentals, and it's difficult to further improve the processing margin. PR has high inventory pressure and a compressed processing interval, facing price pressure [3][4] Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It covers toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profits [24][25] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][57] PF Detailed Data - It contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [70][72][85] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and price differences [87][89][95]