FICC日报：外部仍存不确定性，股指调整-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and unresolved market sentiment volatility risks, the market is expected to undergo a technical correction after a short-term rapid decline. It is recommended to focus on the layout of large-cap index futures and use small and medium-cap index futures for hedging [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the central budgetary investment for social undertakings is expected to increase by over 30% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan". Policies related to social security, education, and employment are being promoted, and the basic pension for retirees will be moderately raised, with plans to establish a childcare subsidy system. Overseas, the US and Mexico are close to an agreement to cancel a 50% tariff on a certain quantity of steel imports [1] - In the spot market, the three major A-share indices rebounded after hitting bottom. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44% to close at 3384.82 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.17%. Most sector indices declined, with the beauty care, banking, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while the national defense and military industry, computer, electronics, and communication sectors led the losses. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased to 1.4 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.63% to 19714.99 points [2] - In the futures market, only the IM basis rebounded. On the trading volume and open interest front, the trading volume of index futures increased on the day, and the open interest of IH and IM rose [2] Strategy - Given the uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and the lingering risks of market sentiment fluctuations, it is expected that after a short-term rapid decline, the market will experience a technical correction. Operationally, it is advisable to focus on the layout of large-cap index futures and use small and medium-cap index futures for hedging [3] Macro Economic Charts - The content mainly lists charts related to the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A-share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share styles [6][10][12] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on June 10, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.17%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.08%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.82%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.92% [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of index futures show that the trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased, and the open interest of IH and IM rose, while that of IF and IC decreased [16] - The basis data of index futures show that only the IM basis increased, while the basis of IF, IH, and IC decreased or changed slightly [36] - The inter - delivery spread data of index futures show the differences and changes in spreads between different delivery months of IF, IH, IC, and IM [43][45]