宝城期货资讯早班车-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic Outlook: China's economy shows a mixed trend with some indicators stable and others indicating weak recovery. Global economic growth is expected to slow, and trade disputes and policy uncertainties remain challenges. [21] - Commodity Market: The casting aluminum alloy futures had a positive debut. Metal production and inventory levels vary, and energy - related policies and supply - demand dynamics affect the energy market. Agricultural products have different supply - demand situations. [2][4] - Financial Market: The bond market is expected to have a volatile trend, with potential opportunities in credit bonds. The stock market shows different trends in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks, and institutional investors have different stances. The foreign exchange market has fluctuations in exchange rates. [23][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 49.5%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down from the previous month and the same period last year. [1] - In April 2025, social financing scale increment decreased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. M0, M1, and M2 showed different growth rates year - on - year. [1] - In May 2025, CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year. PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, lower than the previous month and the same period last year. [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - On June 10, all contracts of casting aluminum alloy futures closed higher, with the main AD2511 contract rising 4.49% to 19,190 yuan/ton. [2] - The first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued on June 10. [2] - On June 10, 43 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 18 had negative basis. [2] - Policies were introduced to promote the high - quality development of the real economy in Shenzhen and improve people's livelihood. [2][3] 3.2.2 Metal - In April, Chile's copper production increased 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons. [4] - On June 9, copper, tin, zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while cobalt and aluminum alloy inventories remained stable. [4][5] - As of June 10, the gold持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF decreased by 0.03% from the previous trading day. [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Iron and Steel Association called on the steel and automotive industries to break the "involution". [6] - Zimbabwe plans to ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027. [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Administration will carry out hydrogen energy pilot projects. [8] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China in July will decrease slightly but remain strong. [8] - The EU plans to impose new sanctions on Russia regarding the Nord Stream pipeline and oil price cap. [8] - Russia extended the ban on selling oil to buyers who comply with the price cap. [9] - EIA adjusted the average price forecasts of WTI and Brent crude oil for this year and next year. [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - On June 11, 10,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be purchased through bidding. [12] - India is expected to increase sugar exports in the 2025/26 season. [12] - South Korea's egg prices reached a four - year high in May, and prices are expected to rise in June and August. [12] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 10, the central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting continued on June 10. [15] - Policies were introduced to deepen reforms in Shenzhen and improve people's livelihood. [15] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium with science - and - technology - based private enterprises. [16] - New policy - based financial instruments are expected to drive trillions of yuan in investment. [16] - As of June 10, the new issuance scale of land reserve special bonds this year reached 108.348 billion yuan. [16] - Many bond funds are "restricting purchases". [17] - The asset - securitization market has developed significantly this year. [17] - Newly issued savings bonds on June 10 had lower interest rates but were still popular. [18] - As of June 10, the issuance scale of commercial banks' "Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds" this year reached 770.16 billion yuan. [18] - The restructuring plan of Red Star Macalline was approved. [18] - New green and innovative medium - term notes and science - and - technology innovation bonds were successfully issued. [19][20] - Some local governments are strengthening debt and financial supervision. [20][21] - The World Bank and Fitch adjusted their global economic and sovereign rating outlooks. [21] - Japan may adjust its government bond purchase policy. [21] - Some bond - related companies had negative events, and some companies' credit ratings were adjusted. [22] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed slight fluctuations, with an optimistic atmosphere. [23] - Some bonds had price increases and decreases in the exchange - traded bond market. [23] - The convertible bond market had mixed performance. [24] - Most money market interest rates showed different trends. [25] - European and US bond yields had different trends due to various factors. [26][27] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar had different changes. [29] - The US dollar index rose slightly, and non - US currencies had mixed performance. [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different investment institutions have different views on the bond market, including the continuation of volatility, potential for interest rate decline, and the attractiveness of credit bonds. [30] - Regarding the stock market, some institutions are optimistic about Chinese stocks, especially technology stocks. [36] 3.4 Stock Market News - A - share indices declined in the afternoon, with TMT sectors adjusting and some sectors rising. [34] - Hong Kong stock indices also declined, with different sector performances. [35] - Hundred - billion private equity funds have increased their positions in A - shares, indicating an optimistic outlook. [35] - UBS maintains a "neutral" stance on Chinese stocks and an "attractive" rating on Chinese technology stocks. [36] - More than 60% of active equity funds have recovered from losses, and there may be opportunities in technology stocks. [36]