氯碱日报：山东主力下游采购价下调，烧碱盘面底部震荡-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Cautious short - selling hedging [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC has high supply and inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive support for its fundamentals, with limited upward driving force and limited downward space at the current low valuation. Attention should be paid to export - related macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with acceptable comprehensive profits, slow inventory digestion, and large inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,810 yuan/ton (- 6), the East China basis was - 130 yuan/ton (+ 6), and the South China basis was - 10 yuan/ton (+ 16) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,680 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,800 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit was 80 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 426 yuan/ton (+ 121), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 520 yuan/ton (- 15), and the PVC export profit was 0.9 US dollars/ton (- 2.0) [1]. - Inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 39.8 million tons (+ 1.4), the social inventory of PVC was 36.1 million tons (- 0.1), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production was 79.90% (+ 4.19%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production was 71.13% (- 0.58%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.47% (+ 2.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 62.6 million tons (+ 8.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,324 yuan/ton (+ 16), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 426 yuan/ton (- 16) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,400 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,759 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 975.8 yuan/ton (+ 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 463.78 yuan/ton (+ 0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,446.05 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 38.21 million tons (- 1.05), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.79 million tons (+ 0.06), and the operation rate of caustic soda was 83.50% (- 0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina was 80.35% (+ 0.82%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 61.50% (- 1.18%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.56% (- 0.04%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: There were few new upstream maintenance, the PVC operation rate increased month - on - month, the current output was at a high level in the same period, and it was difficult to drive significant PVC production cuts under the support of chlor - alkali profits. Coupled with the expected new production capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of PVC remained high [3]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operation of PVC was weakly stable, with downstream markets mainly making rigid - demand purchases, and the weak demand situation was difficult to change [3]. - Inventory side: Downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices. The social inventory of PVC continued to decline month - on - month but at a slower rate, while the in - factory inventory increased. With the increase in supply and weak demand in the later period, the social inventory may increase slightly. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of PVC inventory [3]. - Export: Export orders were continuously and stably delivered. The extension policy of India's BIS certification expired at the end of June, and there was no progress in the policy at present. Coupled with the rainy season suppressing terminal demand, it was expected to drag down export demand [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: There were still many new maintenance plans in June. The 1.02 million - ton production capacity of Fujian Southeast Electro - Chemical was shut down for maintenance, and maintenance in Shandong also increased. The operation rate in Shandong decreased month - on - month. However, due to acceptable chlor - alkali profits supporting upstream manufacturers to maintain high - load production, the overall operation rate of caustic soda remained at a high level. Moreover, new caustic soda production capacity was expected to be put into operation from June to July, so the supply pressure on caustic soda remained high [3]. - Demand side: The delivery volume to the main downstream increased, and the current delivery volume exceeded the daily consumption. After entering the inventory accumulation stage, attention should be paid to the continuity of later - stage stockpiling. After the production profit of alumina was restored, new and restarted production capacities were gradually released, and the operation rate of alumina increased month - on - month, but the restart was not obvious yet. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong was reduced by 10 yuan/ton to 830 yuan/ton since June 11, which may drag down the price of caustic soda. Non - aluminum demand was not good, the operation rate of printing and dyeing decreased month - on - month, downstream customers were cautious about high prices, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand [3]. - Cost side: With the decline in coal and electricity prices, the cost support for caustic soda decreased [3]. Strategy - PVC: Neutral. Given the continuous high supply and inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lack of positive fundamental support, the upward driving force of PVC is insufficient. At the current low valuation, the downward space is also limited. Attention should be paid to export - related macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4]. - Caustic Soda: Cautious short - selling hedging. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with acceptable comprehensive profits, slow inventory digestion, and large inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [4].