新能源及有色金属日报：供需两弱情况延续，铅价小幅回落-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, the lead market is currently in a consumption off - season, with poor downstream enterprise operations. Sellers have lowered their premium quotes to sell, and some smelters are resuming production. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range suggested between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.95 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price, and holders quoted a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters' quotes changed to a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price, and traders quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price. In Jiangxi, smelters quoted a premium of 130 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On June 10, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,815 yuan/ton and closed at 16,880 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,214 lots, an increase of 8,676 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 43,968 lots, a decrease of 5,599 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,905 yuan/ton and a low of 16,790 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,815 yuan/ton, a 0.24% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On June 10, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous week. As of June 10, the LME lead inventory was 278,025 tons, a decrease of 1,950 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is cautiously bearish, and it is recommended to sell hedges on rallies, with the selling range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to be postponed [3]