新能源及有色金属日报：锌价考验下方支撑-20250611

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices are testing the lower support level. The supply pressure remains high, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong overall, it is difficult to offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of a sequential decline in consumption due to the seasonal off - season [1][4] Key Data Spot and Futures - LME zinc spot premium is -$35.03 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 430 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 295 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also declined, while their premiums increased. The SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,945 yuan/ton, closed at 21,845 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 158,631 lots, a decrease of 83,562 lots, and positions were 135,071 lots, a decrease of 647 lots [2] Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 10, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 134,550 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Spot Market: As the absolute price fell, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized [4] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate in the second half of the year [4] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs has not been felt. However, it is difficult to offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of a sequential decline in consumption due to the seasonal off - season [4]