Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound in the short - term, although the EIA monthly report has increased supply expectations, putting pressure on oil prices [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show an oscillating trend. With cost - end rebounds, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Consider long spreads when the spread is low [2]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate. Although there is bottom - support in the short - term, the upward space is limited, and there is a large downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - Polyester is expected to oscillate. PX follows cost fluctuations, TA is under price pressure, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - Rubber is expected to rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to high downstream tire inventory [4][5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Although short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant, inventory and supply are at high levels [5]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. As the downstream enters the off - season, there is pressure on the fundamentals [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, WTI 7 - month contract closed down $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a 0.47% decline; Brent 8 - month contract closed down $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, a 0.25% decline; SC2507 closed up 2.6 yuan to 481.5 yuan per barrel, a 0.54% increase. EIA expects 2025 global oil production to be 104.4 million barrels per day, up 300,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast, and global oil demand to be 103.5 million barrels per day, down 200,000 barrels per day. US oil production in June averaged 13.42 million barrels per day, down from 13.56 million barrels per day in May. API reported a 370,000 - barrel decrease in US crude inventory, a 3 - million - barrel increase in gasoline inventory, and a 3.7 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory for the week ending June 6 [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the SHFE closed up 0.85% at 2,966 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 closed up. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly due to expected supply tightness in June. The high - sulfur market structure was relatively stable, but the month - spread and spot premium declined from previous highs [2]. - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the SHFE closed down 0.85% at 3,507 yuan per ton. June asphalt supply in North China is low, and there is an expected supply reduction in Shandong. However, increased rainfall in the South is hindering demand. The expected 2025 January - June asphalt production in China is about 13.1 million tons [2]. - Polyester: TA509 closed up 0.22% at 4,612 yuan per ton, EG2509 closed up 0.31% at 4,269 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 509 closed up 0.12% at 6,502 yuan per ton. The average sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were estimated at 50 - 60%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China is shut down, and the ethylene glycol main port is expected to receive 128,000 tons from June 9 - 15. PX is in a de - stocking pattern, TA fundamentals are weak, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed up 80 yuan at 13,805 yuan per ton, and NR closed up 105 yuan at 12,155 yuan per ton. In May, the national passenger car retail volume reached 1.932 million, a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The first typhoon may land in Hainan, and Thai raw material supply has been affected by rainfall [4]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,380 yuan per ton. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - Polyolefins: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7,020 - 7,230 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand has declined, but short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant [5]. - PVC: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market was firm. Domestic real estate construction is stable, but demand is expected to weaken as the off - season approaches [7]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Provides data on the basis, spot price, futures price, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, and fuel oil on June 11, 2025 [8]. 3. Market News - On June 10, the EIA released a monthly energy outlook report, adjusting the 2025 global oil production and demand forecasts, and also providing forecasts for US oil production and demand [10]. - On June 10, the first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held. After the high - level talks, both sides suspended some tariffs for 90 days and agreed to establish a consultation mechanism [10]. - On June 10, the API reported that US crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased for the week ending June 6 [11]. 4. Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: Displays the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: Shows the basis trends of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [29][31] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Presents the spread trends between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - 4.4 Inter - product Spreads: Displays the spread trends between different products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63] - 4.5 Production Profits: Shows the cash - flow trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit trends of PP and LLDPE [70][72][75] 5. Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [77][78][79]
光大期货能化商品日报-20250611
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-06-11 03:37