FICC日报：中美经贸磋商持续进行，关注美国5月CPI数据-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for bottom - up allocation [5] 2. Core Views - The report focuses on multiple aspects including China - US economic and trade negotiations, US policies, and market trends. It suggests paying attention to economic fact verification in the short - term, potential fiscal stimulus in China, and risks in the US fiscal and debt situation. It also provides investment strategies for different asset classes [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, China's domestic data was mixed. Exports were slightly better than expected but with obvious re - export support, while investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both increased, and consumption was under pressure. In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.3%, exports increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. There were improvements in early May exports but a weakening in late May. The government may increase fiscal support. China - US economic and trade negotiations have made progress, improving market confidence [1] US Policy Changes - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff - imposing executive order was unconstitutional. However, Trump later announced an increase in steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%. Different economies are accelerating trade negotiations with the US. The US May non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations [2] Potential Risks - The US House - passed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" may increase the federal budget deficit by $2.42 trillion in the next decade, bringing risks such as US Treasury supply, sovereign credit, and political risks. The US may exhaust debt - ceiling - avoiding measures in mid - August. Modifying Medicaid and Medicare may cause a tug - of - war between different political factions [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, follow - up attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals, and long - term attention should be on stagflation allocation. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment. Agricultural products are more likely to have price increases due to tariffs. The EU may lower the price cap on Russian oil. In the short - term, the energy market is centered around production increase, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. Gold is recommended to focus on low - level opportunities [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for bottom - up allocation [5] Important News - On June 10, it was announced that this year's central budget investment in social undertakings is expected to increase by over 30% compared to the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan". China - US economic and trade negotiation mechanism's first meeting continued on June 10. The US Senate may modify a $3 - trillion economic plan. The US may exhaust debt - ceiling - avoiding measures between mid - August and end - September. South Korea plans to allow local companies to issue stablecoins. Traders expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates twice this year. The anti - dumping investigation on EU pork and by - products is extended to December 16, 2025. The EU may lower the Russian oil price cap to $45 per barrel [7]