FICC日报：美西运价有见顶迹象，关注马士基6月最后一周报价-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates on the US - West route show signs of peaking, while the freight rates on the US - East and West routes increased significantly in June due to supply - demand mismatch, but carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. - Some shipping companies announced price increase letters for the second half of June, and the average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [1][2][5]. - There is an expected price increase in August as it is a traditional peak season and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. Attention should be paid to the peak time of European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of freight rates [6]. - The recommended trading strategies are that the main contract fluctuates, and for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in June, and some companies' quotes for the second half of June are higher than those for the first half. For example, HPL's quote for the second - half - of - June shipments is 1835/2935, higher than 1635/2535 for the first - half - of - June shipments [1]. - Price increase letters: Some shipping companies, like MSC, announced price increase letters for the second half of June. MSC's price in the second - half - of - June price increase letter is 2340/3900, up from 1920/3200 in the first - half - of - June price increase letter [2]. II. Geopolitical and Supply - Demand Factors - Geopolitical factor: Israel's defense minister warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels that they would face maritime and air blockades if they did not stop attacking Israel [3]. - Supply - demand mismatch: In April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the Trans - Pacific east - bound routes faster than during the pandemic due to expected decline in demand caused by Sino - US trade tariffs. Recently, with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the end of tariff exemptions on Chinese goods on August 11, demand on the Sino - US routes increased rapidly, leading to a significant increase in freight rates. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. III. Freight Rate and Capacity Analysis - Freight rates: The freight rates on the US - East and West routes increased significantly in June. The latest SCFI (Shanghai - US West) freight rate is 5606 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI Shanghai - US East freight rate is 6939 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). However, the US - West freight rates show signs of peaking [3]. - Capacity: The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining three weeks of June is 361,000 TEU, up from 243,400 TEU in May and 326,400 TEU in July. The capacity of the Shanghai - European route in June decreased, with an average weekly capacity of about 280,600 TEU in the remaining three weeks of June [3][4]. IV. Contract and Trading Analysis - Contract valuation: If calculated based on the spot prices corresponding to the last three periods of SCFIS at 2500 US dollars/FEU, 3000 US dollars/FEU, and 3000 US dollars/FEU, the expected delivery and settlement price of the 06 contract is around 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [5]. - Trading strategy: The main contract fluctuates. For arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. V. Future Outlook - Price increase expectation: It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for July and August in early June and early July. CMA's quote for July shipments on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route is 2385/4345, about 1000 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the second half of June [6]. - Peak time: Historically, the Shanghai - European base port freight rates generally peaked around Week 34 in most years after 2017 (Week 34 in 2025 is from August 11 - 17). The peak time of the Shanghai - European route freight rates in 2025 is not clear [6].