原油日报：受北油南下流量减少影响，WTI结构性偏强-20250611

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for oil prices is a strong and volatile trend, while the medium - term suggests a bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The recent strengthening of the WTI monthly spread and the increase in the premium of WTI Cushing over WTI Midland and WTI MEH indicate a tight fundamental situation in Cushing. This is mainly due to the reduction of Canadian light crude components flowing south to Cushing for blending, caused by wildfires and oil sands refinery maintenance. However, this only represents a local issue in the Midwest crude oil market. Usually, after the Canadian oil sands refinery maintenance ends in June, the situation will recover, and the current price difference will drive more Midland crude to flow to Cushing, suppressing the structural strengthening trend of Cushing [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 31 cents to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.47%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell 17 cents to $66.87 per barrel, a decrease of 0.25%. The SC crude oil main contract rose 0.54% to 482 yuan per barrel [1] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report predicts that the average prices of WTI crude oil in the next two years will be $62.33 per barrel and $55.58 per barrel respectively (previously $61.81 per barrel and $55.24 per barrel), and the average prices of Brent crude oil will be $65.97 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel respectively (previously $65.85 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel). It is also predicted that the average daily output of US crude oil this year will be about 13.4 million barrels, and it will drop to about 13.37 million barrels next year [1] - The EU plans to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel in a new round of sanctions and ban the use of energy infrastructure including the "Nord Stream" pipeline. In response, Russian President Putin extended the ban on oil sales to buyers who comply with the crude oil price cap [1] - OPEC Secretary - General Al - Ghais said that oil demand will maintain strong growth in the next 25 years. OPEC expects that global energy demand will increase by 24% from now to 2050, and during this period, oil demand will exceed 120 million barrels per day [1] - In the week ending June 6 in the US, the API crude oil inventory was - 370,000 barrels (expected 100,000 barrels, previous value - 3.3 million barrels); the Cushing crude oil inventory was - 728,000 barrels (previous value 952,000 barrels); crude oil imports were - 117,000 barrels (previous value 141,000 barrels); gasoline inventory was 2.969 million barrels (expected 1.177 million barrels, previous value 4.7 million barrels); the volume of crude oil put into production was 152,000 barrels per day (previous value 316,000 barrels per day) [1] Strategy - Short - term: The oil price will be in a strong and volatile state. Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The Iran nuclear deal is reached, and there are macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [4]