光大期货软商品日报（2025年6月11日）-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.99% to 67.67 cents per pound on Tuesday, while CF509 rose 0.41% to 13,520 yuan per ton. The cotton price is expected to move up in a volatile manner. The short - term U.S. cotton will be in a volatile state due to limited fundamental drivers and macro - level influence. In the domestic market, the cotton price has a slight upward shift due to sentiment and a small improvement in开机. However, there is still high uncertainty and limited upside potential. Attention should be paid to the results of China - U.S. economic and trade consultations and the operating load of textile enterprises [1]. - For sugar, Brazil exported 783,197.58 tons of sugar in the first week of June, with an average daily export volume of 156,639.52 tons, a 2% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in June last year. The sugar price is expected to be weak in a volatile way. The raw sugar futures price continues to consolidate at a low level, and the domestic sugar market will maintain a weak consolidation pattern before the future import situation becomes clear [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Cotton: The ICE U.S. cotton closed at 67.67 cents per pound, down 0.99%, and CF509 closed at 13,520 yuan per ton, up 0.41%. The main contract's open interest was basically flat. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,644 yuan per ton, up 159 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 14,743 yuan per ton, up 123 yuan. The macro - level is the main influencing factor in the international market, and the short - term U.S. cotton is volatile. In the domestic market, the China - U.S. economic and trade consultation meetings are held, and the downstream yarn comprehensive operating load has a slight increase while the inventory is accumulating. The cotton price has a small upward shift, but the upside is limited [1]. - Sugar: Brazil exported 783,197.58 tons of sugar in the first week of June, with an average daily export volume of 156,639.52 tons, 2% less than the average daily export volume in June last year. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups are stable. The raw sugar futures price is under pressure due to increased production expectations and remains weak. The domestic sugar market is supported by a strong basis, but will continue the weak consolidation pattern before the import situation is clear [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 contract spread is - 225 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,223 yuan, up 98 yuan. The cotton price in Xinjiang is 14,644 yuan per ton, up 159 yuan, and the national price is 14,743 yuan per ton, up 123 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 7 - 9 contract spread is 106 yuan, down 1 yuan; the main contract basis is 413 yuan, up 17 yuan. The sugar price in Nanning is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou is 6,130 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Market Information - Cotton: On June 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,815, down 20 from the previous trading day, with 337 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are as follows: Xinjiang 14,644 yuan per ton, Henan 14,780 yuan per ton, Shandong 14,763 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 14,955 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 53.6, up 0.2 from the previous day, and the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25.4, up 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.2, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.1, up 0.3 [3]. - Sugar: On June 10, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 6,130 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 29,443, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Cotton: There are charts showing the closing price, basis, 7 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China Cotton Price Index of cotton futures [6][8][9][10][11][12]. - Sugar: There are charts showing the closing price, basis, 7 - 9 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar futures [14][15][16]. 3.5 Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, participates in major projects and book - writing, and has won many analyst awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass, and has won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange textile category senior analyst title [21].