CATL(SZ:300750)2025-06-11 04:25Investment Rating - The report rates CATL as "Outperform" and LGES as "Market-Perform" while POSCO Future M and other Korean companies are rated "Underperform" [6][7]. Core Insights - Lithium-Manganese-Rich (LMR) battery technology is positioned as a potential disruptor to the Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) market, particularly in the entry-level EV segment outside of China [1][9]. - LMR technology combines the safety and cost-effectiveness of LFP with the high energy density of NMC, achieving specific capacities of 250-280 mAh/g and cell-level energy densities around 300 Wh/kg, with potential optimization to 320 Wh/kg [2][15]. - Despite its advantages, LMR faces challenges in cycle life, voltage stability, and scalability, which need to be addressed for successful commercialization [3][15]. Summary by Sections LMR Technology Overview - LMR technology is a balanced approach between LFP and NMC, offering a theoretical cost of approximately US$55/kWh, which is about 15% higher than LFP but 20% cheaper than NMC [4][35]. - The technology does not rely on scarce resources like nickel and cobalt, reducing supply chain vulnerabilities and enhancing recycling potential [3][26]. Market Dynamics - Korean companies are focusing on LMR for entry-level EVs, while Chinese firms target higher-end applications, with significant advancements expected in commercialization by 2025-2028 [5][51]. - The report expresses skepticism about LMR's ability to replace LFP, suggesting that hybrid packs combining LFP and NMC may be a more effective solution [5][7]. Competitive Landscape - The lithium-ion battery industry is dominated by LFP and NMC chemistries, with LFP currently holding a 68% market share in China, while LMR is gaining traction in Western markets [29][31]. - Companies like POSCO Future M and Umicore are making strides in LMR technology, with plans for mass production and collaboration with global automakers [50][51]. Cost and Performance Metrics - LMR batteries are expected to provide a 35% improvement in energy density over current mainstream LFP products, making them a compelling option for mid-range EVs [24][26]. - The cost structure of LMR is competitive, with a breakdown showing that manganese's lower price compared to cobalt and nickel contributes to its cost-effectiveness [48][35]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that LMR technology will play a significant role in the transition to more sustainable and cost-effective EV battery solutions, particularly in markets outside of China [27][31].