东鹏控股：零售深耕、现金充沛，存量时代逐步筑底-20250611

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company, Dongpeng Holdings, is a leading player in the ceramic tile industry, with a strong retail channel and solid cash flow, despite facing challenges in the current market environment [3][10]. - The demand for second-hand housing is providing support, while supply-side adjustments are underway, leading to an improvement in industry beta [1][10]. - The company has a robust cash position, with a cash balance of 2.38 billion and a dividend yield of approximately 4.3% [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Dongpeng Holdings specializes in ceramic tiles and sanitary ware, with over 80% of its revenue coming from tile sales [1][13]. - The company has a nationwide distribution network with approximately 7,000 sales outlets and a dealer network of 4,500 [2][13]. Industry Analysis - The ceramic tile industry is experiencing a decline in new construction demand, but there is a growing trend in renovation demand, particularly from the second-hand housing market [1][10]. - The supply-side is undergoing a cleansing process, driven by market forces and energy efficiency initiatives, which is expected to benefit the industry in the long term [1][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.47 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 16.8%, with a net profit of 330 million, down 54.4% [1][4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.01 billion, 6.11 billion, and 6.58 billion respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.8% [3][4]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company has a strong cash flow, with an operating cash flow of 860 million in 2024 and a cash balance of 2.38 billion at the end of the year [2][10]. - The dividend payment capability is supported by the company's solid cash flow and reduced impairment risks [2][10]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company has maintained a relatively stable gross margin despite market pressures, with a gross margin of 29.7% in 2024 [29]. - Cost control measures have been effective, with a management expense ratio of 6.6%, indicating efficient expense management [29][10].