利率专题：银行利润与负债视角再看债市

Group 1 - The report discusses the pressure on banks' profit and liability due to the recent adjustments in the bond market, particularly focusing on the actions of large banks to realize gains from bond sales as the quarter-end approaches [1][8][9] - In the first quarter, banks faced pressure on their FVTPL accounts due to rising interest rates, leading them to increase bond sales to smooth profit performance [1][15][26] - As of May 30, the bond market showed signs of recovery with declining yields across various maturities, indicating a potential easing of pressure on banks' FVTPL accounts compared to the first quarter [2][26][30] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" has been observed since 2022, where banks have experienced slight increases in issuance rates for time deposits following rate cuts, indicating some pressure on their liabilities [3][37][39] - Despite multiple rate cuts, personal and corporate deposits have shown resilience, maintaining a growth rate above 10% until recent regulatory changes impacted the market [3][41][42] - The report highlights that the current pressure on banks' liabilities is gradual, with June being a critical observation period due to the combination of quarter-end and high maturity of time deposits [3][44][50] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy support from the central bank, noting that recent actions such as a 10 billion yuan reverse repo have helped stabilize expectations and support bank liquidity [4][45] - The overall funding supply from banks has improved, with net supply levels stabilizing around 3-4 trillion yuan, indicating that the pressure on large banks' liabilities is relatively manageable [4][45][46] - The report suggests that while there are still uncertainties and potential volatility in the market, the current monetary environment is conducive to maintaining stability in the banking sector [4][50]