Dongpeng Holdings(SZ:003012) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-06-11 06:42Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Views - The company, Dongpeng Holdings, is a leading player in the ceramic tile industry, with a strong retail channel and solid cash flow, despite facing challenges in demand and competition [1][3]. - The demand for second-hand housing is providing support, and the supply side is accelerating its exit, leading to an improvement in industry beta [1][2]. - The company has a robust cash flow, with a projected operating cash flow of 860 million yuan in 2024 and a cash balance of 2.38 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Dongpeng Holdings specializes in ceramic tiles and sanitary ware, with over 80% of its revenue coming from tile sales [1][13]. - The company has a nationwide presence with approximately 7,000 sales outlets and a dealer network of 4,500 [2][13]. Industry Analysis - The ceramic tile industry is experiencing a decline in new construction demand, but there is a growing demand for renovations, particularly in second-hand housing [1][10]. - The supply side is undergoing a market-driven exit, with outdated production capacities expected to be phased out due to energy control and carbon reduction policies [1][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects revenue to decline to 6.47 billion yuan, a 16.8% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit of 330 million yuan, down 54.4% [1][4]. - The company forecasts a recovery starting in 2025, with projected revenues of 6.01 billion yuan, 6.11 billion yuan, and 6.58 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company maintains a stable gross margin, with a projected gross margin of 29.7% in 2024, despite a decrease from previous years [29]. - Operating cash flow is expected to remain strong, with a cash flow ratio of 1.2 and a net cash ratio of 2.6 in 2024 [2][3]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing renovation demand and is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [3][4]. - The report highlights the potential for an increase in dividend yield, projected at approximately 4.3% based on the closing price as of June 9, 2025 [2][3].