GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-06-11 06:57Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [1][11]. Core Insights - In May, domestic wholesale sales of passenger vehicles showed a month-on-month increase, with inventory decreasing by 110,000 units. The report suggests focusing on companies that are in a new vehicle cycle and leading in smart technology [3][5]. - The report highlights that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 52.6% in May, with wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles amounting to 1.216 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.0% [5]. - The report recommends specific stocks including XPeng Motors, Leap Motor, Li Auto, BYD, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and Changan Automobile [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May, wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.31 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% and a month-on-month increase of 5.5%. Cumulative wholesale sales from January to May totaled 10.784 million units, up 11.5% year-on-year [5]. - The overall inventory of passenger vehicle manufacturers decreased by 110,000 units in May, contrasting with a decrease of 90,000 units in the same month last year [5]. New Energy Vehicle Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 52.6% in May, up 8.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points month-on-month. The report notes that electric vehicle (EV) sales grew by 37.7% year-on-year [5]. - Cumulative sales of EVs from January to May increased by 41.0% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) saw a cumulative increase of 42.1% [5]. Export Performance - Passenger vehicle exports in May reached 448,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. Notably, new energy vehicle exports surged by 80.9% year-on-year, accounting for 44.6% of total passenger vehicle exports [5]. - BYD led the new energy vehicle export market with 84,000 units sold in May, marking a 124% year-on-year increase [5]. Company Financial Projections - The report provides financial estimates for several companies, indicating that BYD is expected to have an EPS of 18.56 yuan per share in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19 [6]. - Other companies such as Geely, Changan, Great Wall, Li Auto, XPeng, and Leap Motor are also projected to have positive EPS growth, with all receiving an "Overweight" rating [6].