将新的运营支出方法和较弱的电力需求纳入我们的模型

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Energisa, Equatorial, and Copel, while Cemig is rated as "Sell" [6][64][50]. Core Insights - The new power distribution opex methodology approved by the regulator aims to enhance efficiency sharing with consumers, impacting the fair equity values of the companies covered [7][21]. - Energisa and Equatorial are the most exposed to the new methodology, with estimated impacts of -9% and -8% on their fair equity values, respectively [2][8]. - Despite recent market rallies, the sector remains reasonably valued, with an average real spread of approximately 3.8% to Brazil's free risk bonds [3]. Summary by Sections New Opex Methodology - The new methodology includes annual updates to reference opex, a simplified benchmark model, and the application of the IPCA index for all variables [7][21]. - Cost outperformance sharing with consumers is now correlated to median sectoral efficiency, with limits set at 140%/60% for cost outperformance [21][28]. Company-Specific Adjustments - Energisa's fair equity value is adjusted down by -9% due to the new methodology and updated power demand forecasts, with a revised 2025E growth estimate of 0.5% YoY [49][50]. - Equatorial's fair equity value is adjusted down by -8%, with a similar revision in growth estimates to 0.5% YoY for 2025E [63][64]. - Copel is the least affected, with a -3% impact on fair equity value [2][8]. Market Demand and Forecasts - The report incorporates updated forecasts from Brazil's independent power system operator, indicating a decrease in power demand growth, with a -4% YoY drop noted in April and May 2025 [44][45]. - The overall demand forecast for 2025E has been revised down to -3.1% YoY from a previous estimate of +0.4% YoY [44][45].