2025黄金将继续闪耀

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term, due to the impact of tax - cut policies, the US debt risk still exists. Tariff issues remain uncertain. With uncertainties in trade and monetary policies, the future gold price is expected to rise. Gold resource stocks are likely to see enhanced profit expectations and currently have low valuations [32] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Price Historical Trends - After the end of the Bretton Woods system, the gold price entered an upward cycle. During the second oil crisis, there was a gold bull market. From 1980 - 1991, the gold price remained in a narrow - range low - level fluctuation during the US economic prosperity with double deficits. From 1991 - 2001, central banks sold gold, and the price declined slightly in a narrow range. From 2001 - 2011, gold had a ten - year bull market. Since 2011, the gold price has soared to a historical high due to high global economic uncertainty [4] Factors Affecting Gold Price Interest Rates - In 1981, the interest rate reached a historical high, and the federal funds rate was close to 20%. As inflation was controlled, the interest rate started to decline after 1982. High interest rates and falling inflation expectations suppressed gold demand. In the context of the global financial crisis, the Fed maintained a near - zero federal funds rate and implemented QE [7] GDP Growth, Unemployment - The document provides a chart of the relationship between US GDP growth, unemployment rate, and the gold price, but no specific analysis is given [10] CPI, PPI - In 2007 - 2008, the sharp rise in oil prices drove up CPI and PPI. In 1978 - 1979, the second oil crisis led to a significant increase in CPI. In 2022, inflation soared, and then declined with the Fed's anti - inflation policies [12] Dollar Index - Since 2000, the gold price has generally been negatively correlated with the dollar index [15] TIPS Yield - The document shows a chart of the relationship between the US 10 - year TIPS yield and the gold price, but no specific analysis is given [18] Mining Index - The document shows a chart of the relationship between the mining index and the gold price, but no specific analysis is given [21] US Fiscal Deficit - The document shows a chart of the relationship between the US fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP and the gold price, but no specific analysis is given [24] US Treasury Debt - The document shows a chart of the relationship between the total US Treasury debt and the gold price, but no specific analysis is given [27] US Tariff Events - In 2025, the US imposed tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. Later, some tariff policies were adjusted according to the Geneva economic and trade talks [30] Investment Recommendations - Benefiting from the expected rise in the gold price, gold resource stocks' profit expectations are enhanced, and their valuations are currently low. Beneficiary targets include [Chifeng Gold], [Shan Jin International], [Zhongjin Gold], [Shandong Gold], [Western Gold], [Xiaocheng Technology], [Zhuye Group], [Lingbao Gold], [China Gold International] [32]