首次覆盖：阿联酋能源与低碳增长受益者，提供可观价值及丰厚收益

Investment Focus - The report covers UAE companies with a market capitalization of approximately $50 billion, primarily benefiting from four core themes: the importance of UAE's energy system and resource growth, strong domestic consumption, increasing focus on technology and AI, and business decarbonization transformation [3][4][5] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various companies, including ADNOC Gas, ADNOC Drilling, and Borouge, all rated "Outperform" with significant growth potential [1][2][4][5] Company Analysis - Borouge (BOROUGE UH): A leading global diversified petrochemical company, Borouge operates one of the largest integrated polyolefin production facilities globally. The company is expected to benefit from a merger with Nordic Chemicals and the acquisition of Nova Chemicals, forming Borouge International Group, which is projected to complete in Q1 2026 [11][15][25] - ADNOC Distribution (ADNOCDIS UH): The largest fuel retailer in the UAE with a market share of approximately 65%. The company is expected to experience strong growth driven by the UAE's economic expansion [4][5] - Fertiglobe (FERTIGLB UH): A leading nitrogen fertilizer producer in the MENA region, aiming for nearly 60% profit growth over the decade through operational efficiency, product expansion, and low-carbon ammonia development [5][6] Market Trends - The petrochemical industry is expected to recover, with improved profit margins anticipated from 2025 due to demand recovery in China and rationalization of high-cost capacities in Europe [12][17][25] - Borouge's products command a price premium over market benchmarks, attributed to its Borstar® technology, which enhances product differentiation and quality [12][34][41] - The report highlights that Borouge's EBITDA margin is projected to be around 40%, significantly higher than the industry average of 19%, indicating strong profitability potential [40][41] Financial Projections - Borouge's revenue is forecasted to reach $5.996 billion in 2025, with a net profit of $1.233 billion, reflecting a stable financial outlook [10][53] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of approximately 6% in 2025, aligning with global industry averages [45][47] Strategic Initiatives - The merger with Nordic Chemicals and acquisition of Nova Chemicals is expected to create a significant synergy, with projected annual EBITDA of approximately $7 billion for the new entity [25][34] - Borouge's strategic focus on the Chinese market, which accounts for about 30% of its sales, is seen as a long-term growth opportunity, especially with plans for a new specialty polyolefin plant [48][49]