贝森特“化债”的招靠谱吗？（一）：SLR的_来龙去脉”

Group 1: U.S. Debt Overview - The U.S. currently faces a massive debt of $36 trillion, with significant interest obligations, presenting a challenge for the Treasury Secretary[3] - The recent tax and spending bill is projected to increase the deficit by an additional $2.4 trillion, excluding interest costs[3] - The demand for U.S. debt is under pressure, raising concerns about who will absorb this debt[4] Group 2: Demand Sources for U.S. Debt - Traditional demand for U.S. debt is categorized into four groups: the Federal Reserve, U.S. commercial banks, foreign investors, and U.S. residents[4] - The Federal Reserve's ability to increase holdings is limited without a significant shift in monetary policy[4] - Foreign investors are hesitant due to trade and geopolitical concerns, impacting their demand for U.S. debt[4] Group 3: Regulatory Changes and SLR - The U.S. is likely to modify the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) rules this summer to alleviate liquidity pressures in the debt market[5] - Proposed changes may include adjusting the SLR calculation or lowering the required ratios for large banks[6] - Exempting U.S. debt from SLR calculations could improve liquidity but carries risks, especially given the significant unrealized losses in bank bond holdings[7] Group 4: Impact of SLR Modifications - A study indicates that for every $1 billion increase in U.S. debt held, the SLR decreases by approximately 4.87 basis points[9] - If SLR exemptions are implemented, it could potentially raise the SLR by an average of 3.94 percentage points for major banks[9] - The overall impact of SLR modifications on increasing U.S. debt holdings by banks is expected to be limited, potentially absorbing only about 10% of future deficits[10]