Workflow
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250611

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side has seen a slowdown in the short - term slaughter rhythm due to the reluctance of breeders to sell caused by previous price drops. However, the daily slaughter volume in June is higher than that in May, and the slaughter rhythm will gradually return to normal. The supply pressure is still increasing in the second and third quarters as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle. - On the demand side, high temperatures suppress the willingness to purchase pork, the terminal sales speed slows down, the slaughterhouse operating rate drops, and consumption enters a seasonal off - peak period, providing no strong support for prices. - Overall, the short - term reluctance of breeders to sell supports price rebounds, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the upside space, and the market is expected to show a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs is 13,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 77,371 lots, a decrease of 888 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 525 lots, unchanged. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,944 lots, a decrease of 845 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of live hogs in Henan Zhumadian and Guangdong Yunfu are 14,000 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged. The spot price in Jilin Siping is 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The main basis for live hogs is 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly live hog inventory is 41.731 million heads, a decrease of 1.012 million heads. The inventory of breeding sows is 4.039 million heads, a decrease of 27,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI growth rate is - 0.1%, unchanged. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,880 yuan/ton, unchanged. The corn spot price is 2,401.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.22 yuan/ton. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 961.45, a decrease of 0.09. - The monthly feed production is 27.772 million tons, a decrease of 664,000 tons. The price of二元能繁母猪 is 1,641 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 120.8 yuan/head, a decrease of 36.43 yuan/head. The weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs is 33.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.82 yuan/head. - The monthly pork import volume is 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises is 30.63 million heads, an increase of 8.86 million heads. The monthly catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 416.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.8 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, the daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises across the country on June 11, 2025, is 273,300 heads, a 3.01% increase from the previous day [2].