Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-11 08:51Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories have increased slightly, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Technically, it is currently in a consolidation structure, and it is expected to continue consolidating for some time. It is recommended to go short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation was 1,988 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14 US dollars [2]. - The price difference between the 07 - 08 month contracts of Shanghai lead was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 80,384 lots, a decrease of 6,808 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,179 lots, a decrease of 2,189 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 42,198 tons, an increase of 399 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons; the LME lead inventory was 279,975 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.97 US dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 15,796 yuan, an increase of 92 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 51.28%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons [2]. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.88%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons [2]. - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,073.21 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.21 yuan [2]. 下游情况 - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000, a decrease of 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,690.34 points, a decrease of 4.16 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.604 million, a decrease of 440,600 [2]. - The monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million, an increase of 73,000 [2]. 行业消息 - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs [2]. - Trump said the Los Angeles riot was a "foreign invasion", and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop the Trump administration from sending troops to the state [2]. - The White House denied that Treasury Secretary Bessent was the candidate for the next Fed chairman [2]. - The EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia proposed to lower the price cap of Russian oil to 45 US dollars, and Putin announced the extension of counter - measures [2]. - The Russian ambassador to the US said that a new round of Russia - US talks will be held in Moscow soon [2]. - Five countries including the UK announced sanctions against two far - right Israeli ministers [2]. - The UK's employment in May had the largest decline since 2020, and traders fully priced in two more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year [2].