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瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View of the Report - Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the outlook for major sugar - producing countries in Asia has improved, and there is an expectation of a restorative increase in production, which suppresses sugar prices. Domestically, the import window has opened, and the subsequent import pressure has increased, also putting downward pressure on sugar prices. As the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has inventory - stocking needs, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks and other products may pick up in the future, providing support for sugar prices. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and the boost from summer consumption later [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar was 5,668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan; the main contract position was 358,131 lots, an increase of 15,605 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 29,216, a decrease of 227; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 34,863 lots, a decrease of 7,844 lots. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,571 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; in Nanning, it was 6,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Liuzhou, it was 6,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,822 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,822 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production was 11.1072 million tons, an increase of 0.3601 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume was 7.2446 million tons, an increase of 1.2488 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory was 3.8626 million tons, a decrease of 0.8895 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 65.22%, an increase of 9.43 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar was 130,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil were 1.5526 million tons, a decrease of 0.2986 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 147 yuan/ton, a decrease of 83 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 3.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.21%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.2%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.33%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 9.16%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On June 11, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,995 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 777 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota, 50% tariff); the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,964 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 737 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota, 50% tariff) [2].