Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-11 09:20Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report views the SH2509 futures contract as oscillating [1][2] 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, industry maintenance and alumina stockpiling support the spot price; in the medium - to - long - term, with the commissioning of new caustic soda plants from June to July and the exhaustion of downstream stockpiling demand, there is an expected weakening in the supply - demand balance of caustic soda [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2332 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the futures open interest was 261,587 lots, up 4,321 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 27,085 lots, down 4,825 lots; the futures trading volume was 393,962 lots, down 41,692 lots. The closing prices of the January and May contracts were 2312 yuan/ton and 2372 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan and 46 yuan respectively [1] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 387 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [1] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was - 125 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [1] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry News - From May 30th to June 5th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. As of June 5th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 382,100 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.67% and a year - on - year increase of 5.52% [1] Viewpoint Summary - The SH2509 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 2332 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.6% month - on - month to 83.5%. On the demand side, the number of alumina restarting plants increased, the operating rate continued to rise; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.04% month - on - month to 80.56%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 1.18% month - on - month to 61.5%. This week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.67% month - on - month to 382,100 tons, maintaining a downward trend and at a relatively high level in the same period. The centralized maintenance in June has started, but the high profit of chlor - alkali drives the high - load operation of the devices, and the reduction in supply may be limited. The profit of downstream alumina has recovered and restarts have increased, and the purchase price of liquid caustic soda by some alumina plants in Shandong and Guangxi has been raised. It is the off - season for some non - aluminum industries, and enterprises are cautious in receiving goods and mainly meet rigid demand. Currently, the ECU cost in Shandong is 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the peak season of coal - fired power demand may support the future power cost [1]