Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-11 09:14Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the market is affected by multiple factors. The fast planting progress and good excellent - rate of US soybeans continue to constrain the US soybean market, but the framework agreement between China and the US boosts the US soybean price, which is positive for domestic meal prices. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans increases the oil - mill operating rate and eases the supply, suppressing the meal market. Although the demand for aquaculture increases with rising temperatures, the downstream feed enterprises' purchasing intention is weak. The tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed and the "weather - dominated" growth stage are also important factors. The expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations adds supply pressure. The rapeseed meal futures continue to rise supported by optimistic sentiment, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the palm oil market is in a seasonal production increase period, which constrains its price. The high inventory of domestic oil mills and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations add supply pressure. However, the relatively strong price of Canadian rapeseed provides cost support. Affected by the decline of palm oil, rapeseed oil fluctuates and closes down, and short - term participation is recommended, with attention paid to the change of China - Canada trade relations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9149 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2638 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 141 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 289 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures is 692.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.8 Canadian dollars; that of domestic rapeseed futures is 5050 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 287128 lots, down 1958 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 547917 lots, down 4152 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 30959 lots, down 12008 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 3306 lots, up 15019 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 26411, down 238 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9400 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price is 9403.75 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 5236.55 yuan/ton, up 10.02 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 212 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; that of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 78 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2]. - Substitute Prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8050 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8450 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price Spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1290 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 800 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 25 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 19.19%, down 4.53 percentage points. The import rapeseed crushing profit is - 21 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 14.3 million tons, down 0.65 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.9 million tons, down 0.1 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 61.2 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 38.18 million tons, down 0.86 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 7.4 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 25.2 million tons, up 1.5 million tons [2]. - Delivery Volume: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 3.47 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 3.29 million tons, down 1.07 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal is 21.79%, down 0.07 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 21.81%, down 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil is 14.8%, down 0.18 percentage points [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.48%, down 2.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.47%, down 0.47 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.58%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.45%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Rapeseed Futures: On Tuesday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.4%, and the new - crop contracts having a larger decline. The overall trend was volatile and weak. The 7 - month contract fell 0.8 Canadian dollars to 709.2 Canadian dollars/ton; the 11 - month contract fell 2.7 Canadian dollars to 691.20 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract fell 2.3 Canadian dollars to 698.40 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - US Soybeans: As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the excellent - rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations. The fast planting progress and good excellent - rate of US soybeans continue to constrain the US soybean market [2].