PP策略：反弹后逢高做空

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PP industry is "Oscillating operation", and the strategy is to "Sell short on rallies after rebounds" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level. Although the sentiment in the commodity market has improved due to the agreement between China and the US to implement the results of the economic and trade talks, there are still many factors restricting the price of PP, such as high inventory pressure, slow downstream recovery, and limited new orders [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 50.01% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 44.7%, and orders slightly decreased [1][4] - The US tariff increase is unfavorable for PP downstream product exports, and the import of upstream propane for polypropylene is restricted [1] - Newly added maintenance devices such as Xuzhou Haitian have reduced the PP enterprise开工率 to about 85%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard wire drawing has dropped to about 27% [1][4] - After the Dragon Boat Festival, the petrochemical inventory has increased significantly and is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - The wildfires in Canada have affected crude oil production, the intensity of mutual attacks between Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the agreement between China and the US to implement the results of the economic and trade talks, along with better - than - expected US non - farm data, have led to a rebound in crude oil prices [1] - The two sets of devices in Exxon Huizhou have been put into production and are releasing production capacity. Recently, some maintenance devices have restarted. With the arrival of the rainy season in the South, the downstream recovery is slow, plastic weaving开工率 has slightly decreased, and new orders are limited [1] Futures Market - The PP2509 contract decreased its position and oscillated, with a minimum price of 6935 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6983 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6960 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.27%. The position decreased by 10063 lots to 501412 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PP in most regions are stable. The price of wire drawing is reported at 6930 - 7230 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, new maintenance devices such as Xuzhou Haitian have reduced the PP enterprise开工率 to about 85%, at a neutral level [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of June 6, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 50.01% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 44.7%, and orders slightly decreased [4] - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 83 tons week - on - week, 2 tons higher than the same period last year. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 16 tons to 89 tons, with significant inventory accumulation during the festival and at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 08 contract fluctuated around 67 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by 25 US dollars to 750 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]