冠通每日交易策略-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current soybean meal market presents a mixed situation. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area and potential tariff policies support the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal on dips [3]. - Urea prices are currently at a historical low. After wheat harvesting, with the support of agricultural demand and exports, prices may bounce back, but overall remains weak without significant changes in export policies [5]. - Copper prices are fluctuating within a range. They are highly susceptible to global trade trends and Fed inflation and interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to recent CPI data and China - US trade negotiations [10]. - The rebound of lithium carbonate is mainly due to improved macro - level sentiment rather than fundamentals. It is advisable to short on rebounds [12]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. OPEC+ production increases and supply - demand factors need to be considered [13]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [15]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure and improved commodity sentiment [16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level, facing inventory pressure and slow downstream recovery [18]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, with high supply and low demand [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to be weak in the short - term, pressured by inventory and weak demand [21]. - For coking coal, the supply pressure has eased slightly, but the fundamental relaxation inflection point has not arrived. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [22]. - Rebar may continue to rebound in the short - term, but beware of callbacks. Track steel mill production cuts and inventory data [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short - term, with a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Commodities Soybean Meal - The 09 contract of soybean meal opened higher and rose today, with a closing increase of 0.93%. In the US, soybean planting is nearly finished and weather is favorable. In China, as of June 6, soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week [3]. Urea - Urea prices opened low and continued to decline today. Supply is stable, with daily production around 200,000 tons. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. It may rebound after wheat harvesting, but overall remains weak [4][5]. Futures Market Summary - As of June 11, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Industrial silicon rose over 2%, while palm oil and container shipping to Europe fell over 2% [7]. Core Views on Individual Commodities Copper - Copper prices fluctuated within a range. Supply is tight with reduced port inventory and potential smelter cuts. Demand is in a downward cycle, and prices are affected by trade and Fed policies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with a nearly 2% increase. Spot prices increased slightly. The rebound is due to macro - sentiment, not fundamentals. Be cautious when chasing up [11][12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded due to multiple factors. OPEC+ will increase production in July. Supply and demand factors are complex, and prices are expected to oscillate [13]. Asphalt - Asphalt supply increased, with a 3.6 - percentage - point increase in the start - up rate last week. Demand is mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14][15]. PP - PP downstream start - up rate decreased. Supply increased with new device production and restarted units. Inventory pressure is high, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. Plastic - Plastic start - up rate increased, but downstream start - up rate decreased. Inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. PVC - PVC supply increased, while demand is weak. Inventory is still high, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. Soybean Oil - The 09 contract of soybean oil opened low and declined, with a closing decrease of 0.93%. US soybean growth data is mixed, and domestic inventory is increasing. Futures are expected to be weak in the short - term [20][21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly. Supply pressure eased, but demand is weak. The fundamental relaxation inflection point has not arrived, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [22]. Rebar - Rebar prices rose 0.67% today. Supply is still loose, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is decreasing slowly. It may continue to rebound in the short - term, but beware of callbacks [23][24]. Hot - rolled Coil - Hot - rolled coil prices rose 0.78% today. Supply pressure increased, demand is in the off - season, and cost support weakened. It is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short - term [25].