继续累库，盘面支撑乏力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea price is fluctuating at a low level. The supply is stable, but the high daily production restricts the upward space of the price. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. After the wheat harvest, the price may rebound with the support of agricultural and export demand, but overall it remains weak without significant changes in export policies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - The urea price opened low and moved lower, continuing to hit new lows. The spot price was mainly stable with a downward trend due to the weak futures market. The supply was stable, but the high daily production limited the upward space of the price. The demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. After the wheat harvest, the price may rebound with the support of agricultural and export demand, but overall it remains weak [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2509 opened at 1700 yuan/ton and closed at 1667 yuan/ton, down 1.48%. The trading volume was 287,041 lots, an increase of 18,208 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 7,005 lots, and the short positions increased by 18,351 lots [2]. Spot - Affected by the weak futures market, the urea spot market had difficulty in receiving orders, and the price was mainly stable with a downward trend. The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1690 - 1730 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][5]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt Data - On June 11, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,042, a decrease of 9 compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease of 9 in Puyang Huangfu [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [8]. Supply Data - On June 11, 2025, the national daily urea production was 203,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared to the previous day [10]. Inventory Data - As of June 11, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 13.69% [13]. Pre - sale Order Days - As of June 11, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.71 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.39% [13].