华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250611

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream开工 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content For Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui, with different shutdown times and a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products prices continued to decline, with a pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage was sluggish, providing weak price support [2] - Follow - up attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2] For Aluminum Ingots - The impact of previous news on ore prices has stabilized, alumina enterprises continue to resume production, and spot inventory is gradually increasing pressure [2] - In June, the overall off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry is strong, with the weekly starting rate dropping 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% [2] - On June 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 477,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from last Thursday and 34,000 tons from the end of May [2] - The core driver of inventory reduction is the tight supply, with a decrease in ingot casting volume and low actual arrivals, resulting in a shortage of circulating goods [2] - In the short term, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the annual low of 440,000 tons [2] - Overseas macro instability exists, and the price is under pressure in the off - season. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be adjusted within a range, with inventory reduction supporting the price [3] - Follow - up attention should be paid to macro expectations, geopolitical crises, ore resumption, and consumption release [3]