基本面暂无明显改善，盘面震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Short - term market sentiment is warming, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both coal - coke supply and demand are slightly declining from high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. Rebounds should be treated with caution [2]. 3. Content Summary - Price Trend: Recently, coal - coke prices have shown a bottom - up rebound, driven by factors such as short - covering, valuation repair, and improved foreign trade. But the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and price rebounds are still under pressure. On the spot side, port coke出库 quotes have risen slightly, and the origin price has stabilized after the 3rd round of cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May. Coking coal prices remain weakly stable without a rebound [2]. - Supply Situation: With the coal price rebound, there are continuous rumors of supply contraction. Domestic coal mine production continues a slight downward trend, but there is no large - scale production halt or reduction, and the upstream inventory accumulation situation cannot be changed. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines is 189.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous period and a decrease of 7.8 million tons year - on - year. Coal mine raw coal inventory is 670.8 million tons, an increase of 29.7 million tons compared to the previous period and an increase of 335.7 million tons year - on - year. Clean coal inventory is 480.7 million tons, an increase of 7.7 million tons compared to the previous period and an increase of 204 million tons year - on - year [2]. - Demand Situation: Coal - coke demand continues a slight downward trend, but the decline rate is slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 241.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 6.05 million tons compared to the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in production, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines. The fundamentals still lack the driving force for coal price rebounds [2]. - Market Outlook: Although the short - term market sentiment is warming and supports coal prices to some extent, the supply and demand of coal - coke are both slightly declining from high levels, and the inventory pressure is still large. Rebounds should be treated with caution [2].