信达生物（1801.HK）：IBI363 肺鳞癌更新 mPFS 数据进一步延长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 95, representing a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 81.1 [2][9][10] Core Insights - The report highlights positive data updates for IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2) in lung squamous cell carcinoma (sq-NSCLC), with median progression-free survival (mPFS) extended to 9.3 months, enhancing confidence in its development [1][7] - IBI343 (CLDN18.2 ADC) also showed promising data in pancreatic cancer, with mPFS consistent with previous reports [1][7] - The company is expected to initiate Phase 3 clinical trials for IBI363 in third-line sq-NSCLC, with the 3mg/kg dose likely to be used [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 6,206 million - 2024: RMB 9,422 million - 2025E: RMB 11,691 million - 2026E: RMB 13,159 million - 2027E: RMB 15,805 million - The projected growth rates are 36.2% for 2023, 51.8% for 2024, and 24.1% for 2025 [9][10] - The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, reaching RMB 433 million, and further increasing to RMB 1,893 million by 2027 [9][10] Market Expectations - The report indicates that IBI363 has the potential to achieve peak sales of approximately RMB 2.5 billion in China, while IBI343 could reach around RMB 1.5 billion [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of IBI363 as a potential solution for PD-1 resistance, which could significantly impact its market performance [9][10]