油脂周报：基本面多空交织，期价震荡磨底-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the overall fundamentals of domestic and international oils are mixed. The prices in June are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The inventories of soybean and palm oils are expected to increase, and the rapeseed oil inventory will remain high, forcing the basis of oils to be weak. In the long - term, starting from July, due to the decrease in the sown area of new - season soybeans and rapeseeds in North America and possible weather speculation, the prices of oils are expected to stop falling and rebound from the third quarter. [2][48] - For trading strategies, the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils will fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8300, and 9000 - 9500 respectively, and operate within these ranges. For arbitrage, the oil - meal ratios of domestic soybean and rapeseed are at historical highs, and summer is the off - season for oil consumption. One can focus on the strategy of narrowing the oil - meal ratio of the 09 contracts of soybean and rapeseed oils. [2][48] 3. Summaries According to Related Categories Palm Oil - Short - term Performance and Reasons: Since May, domestic and international palm oils have been relatively resistant to decline. In Malaysia, the May MPOB report showed that production and exports continued to rise, but the production increase was limited while exports had double - digit growth, resulting in the ending inventory being only 1.99 million tons, less than the expected 2 million tons. In June, exports remained strong, with a 8.1 - 32.69% month - on - month increase from June 1 - 10, and production also continued to recover. In Indonesia, in March, production and demand both increased, but exports and domestic consumption increased more than production, causing the ending inventory to drop to 2.04 million tons. The limited inventory pressure in the producing areas is the main reason for the resistant decline of palm oil. [5][6] - Future Influencing Factors: India's palm oil import demand and Indonesia's B40 policy will also hinder the inventory accumulation in the producing areas. India's low inventory and the reduction of import taxes will increase its palm oil imports. Although Indonesia's B40 policy has not been fully implemented, it has promoted the year - on - year growth of palm oil consumption for biodiesel. [12] - Domestic Situation: From late April to early May, China made a large number of purchases, and the palm oil arrivals in May and June are expected to be more than 200,000 tons. The inventory in June has a strong rebound expectation. As of the week of June 6, the domestic palm oil inventory has rebounded to 372,600 tons. However, the import profit has turned negative since late May, and the arrivals from July - September are expected to be much lower, so the supply in the far - month may tighten again. [14] - Long - term Outlook: The palm oil production season in Malaysia is expected to last until October. The overall production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025 is expected to remain at the same level as last year or increase slightly. Before the inventory in Malaysia reaches its annual high in September - October, the inventory accumulation expectation will continue to put pressure on the price. In the short - term, the price has support and shows a wide - range fluctuation. In the long - term, before September - October, the price is likely to show a weak - range fluctuation. [16][17] Soybean Oil - Current Market Stage and Price Trend: Soybean oil is at the end of the transition from the South American market to the North American market. The abundant supply of South American soybeans and the smooth progress of US soybean sowing limit the upward space of soybean - related products, but the tightening of the 2025/2026 US and global soybean supply - demand situation and the uncertain weather in July - August also prevent the price from falling sharply. In June, the price is likely to fluctuate. [18] - Impact of US Biodiesel Policy: The new biodiesel policy is generally favorable for the future biodiesel demand of US soybean oil, but there are uncertainties in the degree of benefit and some details. The new RVO for 2026 and the extension of the 45Z tax credit policy are positive, but factors such as Senate review and small - refinery exemptions may have a negative impact. [19] - Global Soybean Market Fundamentals: In South America, the 2024/2025 soybean production in Brazil and Argentina is expected to increase, and the export pressure will gradually ease after July. In the US, as of the week of June 8, the sowing progress of 2025/2026 soybeans is faster than the five - year average, but there are potential drought and high - temperature risks in July - August, and the predicted yield also has great uncertainty. The biodiesel demand for US soybean oil is likely to increase year - on - year, but the export situation is uncertain. [20][21] - Domestic Situation: Currently, it is the peak period of Brazilian soybean arrivals in China. The soybean arrivals from May - August are expected to be around 10 million tons, and the soybean and soybean oil inventories are expected to increase. However, the purchase of US soybeans in the future is uncertain, and the slow purchase progress for the far - month may lead to supply uncertainty in the third and fourth quarters. [35] - Long - term Outlook: In the short - term, soybean oil will continue to fluctuate widely. In the long - term, with the tightening of the new - season global and US soybean supply - demand situation, possible weather speculation, and the decrease in domestic imports, soybean oil is expected to stop falling and rebound in the third quarter. [38] Rapeseed Oil - Short - term Performance and Reasons: Recently, rapeseed oil has been relatively weak among the three major domestic oils because of the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations. The communication between the two countries on June 6 made the market expect that China may relax the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and the anti - dumping duties on rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal. [39] - Limitations of Price Decline: The decline of rapeseed oil price is limited. The tight supply - demand situation of old - season Canadian rapeseed and the lack of import profit in China will restrict the import of Canadian rapeseed in the third quarter. The current inventory of old - season Canadian rapeseed is low, and the import profit has been significantly declining since mid - March. [40] - Domestic Inventory and Supply Situation: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory remains high. As of the week of June 6, it was still 829,000 tons. However, the import of rapeseed is expected to decrease from June, which is expected to help the domestic rapeseed oil inventory start to decline from June - August. [42][43] - New - Season Situation: The sowing progress of 2025/2026 rapeseed in Canada is relatively fast, but there are potential drought risks in some areas, and the predicted yield increase is small. The Australian rapeseed production in 2025/2026 is expected to decrease by 6% year - on - year. [43] - Long - term Outlook: In the short - term, the decline of rapeseed oil is limited, and the 09 contract has strong support at 9000. In the long - term, before the new - season Canadian rapeseed is harvested in October, the supply of old - season rapeseed is limited. Coupled with possible weather speculation in July - August and domestic rapeseed inventory reduction, rapeseed oil is expected to perform relatively strongly from July. [47]