宏观金融数据日报-20250611

Report Overview - The report is a macro-financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro-Financial Research Center on June 11, 2025 [2][3] Market Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -1.41bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a -0.63bp change, GC001 at 1.51 with an 8.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.56 with a 1.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65 with a -0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a -10.00bp change [3] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.41 with a -0.25bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.50 with a 0.54bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.59 with a 0.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.49 with a -2.00bp change [3] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 1986 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% the previous day. With 4545 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 2559 billion yuan [3] - This week, 9309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 2149 billion, 1265 billion, and 1350 billion yuan maturing from Wednesday to Friday respectively [4] Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 closed at 3865 with a -0.51% change, IF current - month contract at 3841 with a -0.7% change; the SSE 50 closed at 2676 with a -0.39% change, IH current - month contract at 2660 with a -0.6% change; the CSI 500 closed at 5758 with a -0.82% change, IC current - month contract at 5718 with a -0.8% change; the CSI 1000 closed at 6162 with a -0.92% change, IM current - month contract at 6114 with a -0.9% change [5] - IF trading volume was 98975 with a 12.2% change, IF open interest was 238881 with a -1.6% change; IH trading volume was 26839 with a 28.1% change, IH open interest was 84465 with a 0.1% change; IC trading volume was 86124 with a 12.8% change, IC open interest was 219085 with a -0.7% change; IM trading volume was 212759 with a 23.5% change, IM open interest was 338127 with a 4.2% change [5] Market Analysis and Suggestions - The domestic factors have weak driving force for the stock index. The fundamentals are weak, with prices remaining low and export growth slowing. The policy is in a relatively quiet period [6] - Overseas factors dominate the short - term fluctuations of the stock index. Attention should be paid to the latest progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Without obvious positive news, the possibility of the stock index breaking through upwards is low. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount: current - month contract 23.10%, next - month contract 15.22%, current - quarter contract 0.02%, next - quarter contract 5.91% [7] - IH premium/discount: current - month contract 22.37%, next - month contract 17.01%, current - quarter contract 7.18%, next - quarter contract 3.71% [7] - IC premium/discount: current - month contract 25.22%, next - month contract 18.22%, current - quarter contract 13.97%, next - quarter contract 11.48% [7] - IM premium/discount: current - month contract 28.37%, next - month contract 22.09%, current - quarter contract 17.95%, next - quarter contract 14.85% [7]