日度策略参考-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No explicit industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have weak driving force on stock indices, with weak fundamentals. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations should be focused on. Without obvious positive factors, the possibility of stock indices breaking upward is low [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short term, suppressing the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US negotiations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data, leading to different trends in various commodities, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock Indices: Domestic factors have weak driving force, and overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The possibility of upward breakthrough is low without obvious positive factors. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. It may fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic is solid [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply limits the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening macro - sentiment and reduced downstream demand may lead to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1]. - Alumina: Spot price is stable, while futures price is weak, and the increase in production from the smelting end presses down the futures price [1]. - Zinc: Monday's inventory increase presses down the price. The subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - Nickel: It fluctuates with the macro - situation in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - Stainless Steel: Futures are in a weak and fluctuating state in the short term, and there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - Tin: Supply contradictions intensify in the short term, and the price fluctuates at a high level [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Supply shows an improving trend, demand remains low, and inventory pressure is huge [1]. - Polysilicon: Bearish due to factors such as a decline in downstream production scheduling and an increase in futures premiums over spot [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: Bearish as the mine - end price continues to decline and downstream procurement is inactive [1]. - Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil): In the transition from peak to off - peak season, cost loosens, supply - demand is loose, and there is no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: There is an expected peak in iron - water production, and there may be an increase in supply in June, so the pressure on steel products should be noted [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and good demand, but there is heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Iron: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure from supply surplus [1]. - Glass: Supply - demand is weak, and the price continues to be weak as the off - peak season approaches [1]. - Soda Ash: Supply surplus concerns resurface, terminal demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures prices rebound to repair the discount. Coking coal can still be short - sold, and the logic for coke is the same [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The May report predicts an increase in production, exports, and inventory. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - Soybean Oil: There is a game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations in other oils [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key bearish drivers. Be vigilant against a rebound in the market [1]. - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and strong macro - uncertainties in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and sugar production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand is expected to tighten, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Soybean Meal: It is expected to accumulate inventory, and the domestic basis is under pressure. The M09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade talks [1]. - Paper Pulp: Demand is light at present, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is light, and it is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - Hogs: The inventory is expected to be abundant, and the futures are at a discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short term, and the futures are generally stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Sino - US negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and there may be support in the summer consumption peak season [1]. - Fuel Oil: Similar to crude oil, with Sino - US negotiations, geopolitical situations, and potential summer support [1]. - Asphalt: There are factors such as cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1]. - BR Rubber: The short - term fundamentals are loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, attention should be paid to butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - PTA: The tight situation has been alleviated, and the short - fiber cost is closely related. Short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profits expand, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, the device load rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Daily production is still high, and the export demand is expected to increase in the short term, and the market may rebound [1]. - Methanol: The domestic start - up rate is high, inventory is increasing, traditional downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - PE: Seasonal demand weakens, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - PP: Maintenance support is limited, and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases as maintenance ends and new devices are put into operation, and the price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [1]. - LPG: The spot is strong in the short term, but the market anticipates a price cut. The subsequent trend depends on the alumina market [1]. Other - Container Shipping (European Route): There is a strong expectation but weak reality. Short - selling should be cautious during the price - holding period, and long - positions can be lightly tried in the peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1]