航运衍生品数据日报-20250611

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The spot market for shipping is showing signs of price increases in late June, and the futures market is experiencing upward fluctuations, especially in the near - month contracts. A 12 - 4 positive spread strategy is recommended to be held [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Rate Index - Current and Previous Values and Changes: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2240, up 8.09% from the previous value of 2073. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is currently 1155, a 3.34% increase from 1118. Other routes like SCFI - West US, SCFIS - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also show significant increases, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe having the highest increase of 29.62% from 1252 to 1623 [2]. 3.2 Forward Contracts (EC) - Price and Position Changes: For forward contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices show mixed trends. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1932.0, down 0.85% from 1948.6. In terms of positions, EC2508's position has increased by 1367 to 45494, while EC2506's position has decreased by 535 to 7268 [2]. 3.3 Market News - Tariff Adjustments: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [6]. - Export Data: In May, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Exports to the US were 28.819 billion US dollars, a 34.5% year - on - year decrease with a larger decline than in April. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 14.8% and 12% respectively [6]. - Sino - US Trade Talks: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9. Both sides expressed that the talks were going well, and the international community hopes that the talks can resolve differences and strengthen cooperation [7]. 3.4 Market Analysis - Spot Market: In late June, shipping companies are eager to raise prices. The market average transaction price in the first week of June was 23508 US dollars/FEU, and the high - end (75th percentile) transaction price was 27000 US dollars/FEU. Although the Far - East to Nordic route is not directly affected by Sino - US tariffs, market sentiment can push up freight rates due to potential capacity shortages [8]. - Futures Market: The price increases in the spot market have stimulated the futures market to fluctuate upward. Near - month contracts (June and August) are more affected, with the August contract having greater elasticity, while more distant contracts follow fundamental logic [8][14].