国投期货能源日报-20250611

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as having a certain bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities according to the star - rating description) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price showed a pattern of rising and then falling overnight, and the SC07 contract declined by 0.35% during the day. The lack of incremental progress in Sino - US negotiations led to insufficient upward momentum for oil prices. Although there were short - term supports for crude oil, the medium - term decline in oil demand and the return of supply would limit the strength of short - term positives. The upward space for crude oil rebounds is limited [2]. - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing remains relatively weak. With the expected increase in high - sulfur heavy - crude supply from OPEC+ and sufficient low - sulfur fuel oil supply, the crack spreads of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to be under pressure [2]. - The BU crack spread of the September contract for asphalt has declined, reaching the entry point for the long - BU crack strategy. Despite short - term pressure on the crack spread, the upward trend is unlikely to reverse due to factors such as high dilution asphalt prices, limited production increase, and growing demand [3]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure. Although the domestic chemical demand is increasing, the growth space is limited. The market is in a state of low - level oscillation with some support from the rising crude oil price [4]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell, with the SC07 contract down 0.35% during the day. After pricing in the optimistic expectations for Sino - US negotiations, there is no incremental progress beyond the Geneva consensus, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 370,000 barrels, less than expected. After the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase in July, factors like risk - sentiment repair in Sino - US trade, improved peak - season demand, and sanctions risks supported crude oil, but medium - term demand decline and supply return will limit short - term positives [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand in shipping and deep - processing is weak. Although there is support from power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa, lower expected temperatures in Saudi Arabia and Egypt and high - valued crack spreads may lead to more oil - based power generation. The expected increase in high - sulfur heavy - crude supply from OPEC+ will likely weaken the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply from Kuwait's Al - zour refinery and Nigeria's Dongoto refinery is abundant, and with weak demand, its crack spread is expected to be under pressure [2]. Asphalt - The BU crack spread of the September contract for asphalt has declined, reaching the entry point for the long - BU crack strategy. The high price of diluted asphalt in June and July has led to serious theoretical losses in processing, and port inventories are at an absolute low. Although some refineries with quotas have increased or switched to asphalt production, subsequent production increase lacks momentum. After the maintenance peak, the increase in asphalt production from major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has been increasing, and the cumulative year - on - year figure has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, increased significantly from January to April. The balance sheet shows a continued de - stocking trend and low inventory levels. Although the BU crack spread faces short - term callback pressure, the upward trend is unlikely to reverse [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Domestic refinery prices for LPG remain weak. With the decline in terminal gas sales and increased refinery restarts, the domestic supply of LPG is abundant. Although domestic chemical demand is increasing month - on - month, the PDH profit margin has slightly declined, and the cost advantage of propane has decreased due to the fall in naphtha prices, limiting the growth space. Under off - season pressure, the inventories of terminals and refineries have increased, and the market is under pressure. The rising crude oil price provides some support to the futures market, and the market is in a state of low - level oscillation [4].