兴业期货日度策略-20250611

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, various ratings such as "oscillating strongly," "oscillating weakly," "oscillating," "rising," and "falling" are given [1][4][6][8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships of various commodities. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals [1][4][6][8][10]. - The upward breakthrough of stock index futures requires further accumulation of policy and capital benefits, while the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Bond markets are expected to have no trend - like market due to uncertainties [1]. - For most commodities, the supply - demand relationship is the key factor affecting their prices. For example, commodities with oversupply are likely to have downward pressure on prices, while those with tight supply may see price increases [2][4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures are approaching the upper resistance level, and further breakthrough requires the accumulation of policy and capital benefits. The short - term upward momentum is slightly weakened, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to lay out IF and IM on dips and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US trade negotiations on market risk preference [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market is oscillating. There are uncertainties in domestic and foreign macro - economic conditions and domestic policy rhythms. The bond market is expected to have no trend - like market. In the short term, the capital market and short - term macro - events are the main driving factors. There is some support in the bond market under the loose liquidity environment, but the upward momentum is cautious [1]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are oscillating strongly. The Sino - US second - round trade negotiations may achieve limited/phase results. The US employment data is resilient, but the risk of re - inflation still exists. It is recommended to buy on dips based on long - term moving averages or continue to hold short - selling out - of - the - money put options for gold. For silver, continue to hold long positions in the 08 contract or hold short - selling out - of - the money put options [1][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is oscillating. The macro - economic situation has high uncertainty, and the supply of the mine end is still tight. The demand is cautious due to the macro - uncertainty and the domestic consumption off - season. The LME inventory is continuously decreasing. Short - term market sentiment and funds may magnify price fluctuations [4]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is oscillating, and alumina is oscillating weakly. The supply of alumina has uncertainties, but the short - term impact is weakened. The resumption of production increases the supply pressure, and the price may continue to run close to the cost line. The supply of aluminum has clear constraints, but the demand policy has uncertainties [4]. - Nickel: The price is oscillating. The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is gradually recovering, but there are policy concerns. The downstream stainless steel demand is weak, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation. It is not advisable to chase short positions for now, and continue to hold previously short - sold call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Styrene: The support is strengthening, and new long positions can be entered for EB2508 [2]. - PTA: The supply increase is expected to be clear, and the previously short positions of PTA2509 can be held [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the short - sold call options of LC2509 - C - 60000 can be held [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. However, the technical side shows signs of over - decline repair. It is recommended to enter short - selling put options [6]. - Crude Oil: The price is oscillating weakly. Although there are positive expectations for trade negotiations and the OPEC production increase is lower than expected, the consumption side is not good, and the global inventory is difficult to reduce. It is not advisable to chase long positions for now [8]. - Polyester: The price is oscillating weakly. The supply increase is expected to be clear, and the market lacks upward driving force [10]. - Methanol: The price is rising. The spot trading has improved significantly, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. Unless the supply is significantly reduced, the price is difficult to rise sharply [10]. - Polyolefins: The price is falling. The restart of maintenance devices increases the supply pressure. If the inventory accumulates in the upper and middle reaches, the price will further decline [10]. Black Metals - Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, and Iron Ore: All are oscillating. The Sino - US trade negotiations are in progress, and the market sentiment is cautious. The demand for construction steel is in the off - season, and the supply of iron ore is expected to increase. For rebar, continue to hold short - sold out - of - the money call options; for hot - rolled coil, hold previously recommended short positions; for iron ore, cautious investors can hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination, and aggressive investors can hold short positions in the I2601 contract [6]. Coal and Coke - Coking Coal and Coke: Both are oscillating weakly. The supply of coking coal is in an oversupply situation, and the demand of steel and coking enterprises is in the off - season. For coke, although there may be production restrictions due to environmental inspections, the terminal demand is weak, and the demand decline rate is higher than the supply decline rate [8]. Building Materials - Soda Ash and Float Glass: Both are in a bearish trend. The supply of soda ash is relatively loose compared to demand, and the high inventory is difficult to digest. For float glass, the demand is affected by the season and the real - estate market, and the inventory is high. Hold previously recommended short positions for soda ash and float glass and consider relevant spread strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The price is oscillating. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the price trend depends on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [10]. - Rubber: The price is oscillating weakly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The terminal consumption is in the off - season, and the rubber price is difficult to have a trend - like rebound [10].