山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250611

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of strong gold and weak silver, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold rising 0.56% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver falling 0.28% [1]. - In the short - term, there are still risks of repeated Trump trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and the Sino - US trade talks are expected to focus on rare earths and export controls. The second - day consultation between the two countries went smoothly, and a trade framework was reached [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the anxiety of US people about the future inflation path in May has eased. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the total expected interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC net long positions in silver and iShare Silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold 3.1.1 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are suggested [2]. 3.1.2 Gold - related Data - International prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $3344.80 per ounce, down $1.90 (-0.06%) from the previous day and down $32.10 (-0.95%) from last week; London gold closed at $3337.70 per ounce, up $18.40 (0.55%) from the previous day and up $2.95 (0.09%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 777.54 yuan per gram, up 2.48 yuan (0.32%) from the previous day and down 4.88 yuan (-0.62%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 774.54 yuan per gram, up 1.72 yuan (0.22%) from the previous day and down 5.14 yuan (-0.66%) from last week [2]. - Other data: such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc., have different changes compared with the previous day or last week [2]. 3.1.3 Top 10 Net Positions of Shanghai Gold by SHFE Members - The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 members increased, while the net short positions decreased [3]. 3.2 Silver 3.2.1 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are suggested [6]. 3.2.2 Silver - related Data - International prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $36.66 per ounce, down $0.25 (-0.68%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.71%) from last week; London silver closed at $36.76 per ounce, up $0.51 (1.41%) from the previous day and up $2.51 (7.33%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8902 yuan per kilogram, up 15 yuan (0.17%) from the previous day and up 439 yuan (5.19%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 8882 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and up 441 yuan (5.22%) from last week [6]. - Other data: such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc., have different changes compared with the previous day or last week [6]. 3.2.3 Top 10 Net Positions of Shanghai Silver by SHFE Members - The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 members had different changes, and the net short positions decreased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate (IORB) all decreased by 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets were $67236.32 billion, down $5.14 billion (-0.00%) [8]. - Other economic indicators: M2 increased by 0.83 percentage points year - on - year; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, the US Treasury yield spread, etc., all had different changes [8][10]. - Central bank gold reserves: China's gold reserves were 2296.37 tons, up 4.04 tons (0.18%); the US had 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world had 36250.15 tons, unchanged [10][12]. - Other indicators: such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, trade, etc., all had different changes [10]. - Fed's latest interest rate expectations: The probability of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates is provided [13].