马棕报告解读：增产与需求强劲的博弈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term palm oil market is a game between increasing production and strong demand. Strong export demand can offset some inventory pressure. The current support for international palm oil demand mainly comes from India and China actively purchasing shipments from June to August. However, the decline in EU market demand will drag down global market demand [3][34]. - Currently in the increasing production cycle of Southeast Asian palm oil, the production of palm oil will seasonally increase from June to August, which will offset the pulse - like demand from India, and the global inventory reconstruction cycle has begun. The supply - demand balance sheet clearly points to the peak of inventory accumulation pressure in the third quarter of 2025, but India's pulse - like demand and policy variables may delay the downward trend. Attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the inventory - consumption ratio in August. If India's replenishment ends in August and EU demand does not improve, the increasing production pressure in the palm oil market will dominate the market, and futures prices will face downward risks again [3][34]. - The inventory of domestic palm oil is slowly rising, and the support of low inventory for prices has weakened. In the absence of its own driving force, it will still mainly follow the fluctuations of the international palm oil market [3][36]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Malaysia Palm Oil Supply Surplus Pressure Continues 3.1.1 Ma Palm Production Seasonal Recovery Exceeds Expectations - On June 10, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board released the production and demand data of Malaysian palm oil in May. The report showed that the production in May increased by 5.05% month - on - month to 1.77 million tons, higher than the expected 1.74 million tons, and it was the third consecutive month of growth, reaching a new high since October 2024. The main reasons for the increase were seasonal recovery and good weather [7]. - The report confirmed that Malaysia has entered a definite increasing production channel, and the supply pressure will continue to accumulate from June to August. Although the surge in Indian demand provides short - term hedging, the structural shrinkage in the EU and the arrival of the high - yield period will make the global palm oil balance sheet evolve towards a looser direction. SPPOMA estimated that the production from June 1 - 5 increased by 10.1% month - on - month, indicating the continuation of the increasing production cycle [7]. 3.1.2 Ma Palm Export Demand is Strong - ITS and AmSpec data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil in May increased by 13.27% - 17.9% month - on - month. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board report confirmed that the export increased by 25.6% month - on - month to 1.39 million tons, reaching a six - month high. The main reason was the explosive replenishment in India. In May, India imported 600,000 tons of palm oil, a month - on - month increase of 87%, a six - month high, and the total edible oil import was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 37% [13]. 3.1.3 Ma Palm Inventory Pressure Appears - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board report showed that the palm oil inventory at the end of May in Malaysia was 1.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%, slightly lower than the pre - report market expectation of 2.01 million tons, but still the highest since September 2024. The main reason for inventory accumulation was that the increase in production offset the strong export. Considering that Malaysia will enter the seasonal growth period from June to August, the palm oil production is expected to increase by 3 - 5% month - on - month. Coupled with the annual target of 48 million tons of GAPKI in Indonesia, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, the global monthly average supply is 200,000 - 350,000 tons higher than the demand. The global palm oil inventory accumulation may accelerate in the second half of 2025 [14]. 3.2 Regional Market Differentiation Appears 3.2.1 EU Demand Collapses - As of the 2024/25 season, the EU's palm oil import was only 2.63 million tons, a year - on - year sharp drop of 19%. The main reason was policy - driven. The RED II directive required palm oil to pass strict sustainable certification (such as zero - deforestation certification), significantly raising the import threshold. The EU's demand for oils and fats showed an obvious structural trend, that is, the EU turned to domestic rapeseed oil or waste edible oil, and the demand for palm oil has been in a long - term downward trend [18]. 3.2.2 India's Import Explosive Growth is Difficult to Sustain - India's import increased explosively in May. The palm oil import was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87%, a six - month high; the total edible oil import was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 37%, and the imports of soybean oil and sunflower oil also increased simultaneously. However, India's replenishment was only a short - term behavior. From January to April, the average monthly import was only 450,000 tons, continuously lower than the normal monthly average of 750,000 tons, resulting in the inventory being consumed to a dangerous level. In addition, there was a certain lag in the repair of the soybean - palm oil price difference. The price of palm oil did not fall below that of soybean oil until the end of April, making the cost - effectiveness advantage of palm oil prominent in May [22]. - In June, the import tax on crude palm oil was reduced from 20% to 10% (the refined oil tax rate remained at 12.5%). The policy intention was clear. Since palm oil accounts for 40% of India's edible oil consumption, it is necessary to reduce food inflation in the short term and support the domestic refining industry in the long term. Traders locked in the shipping schedules from June to July in advance to take advantage of the tax rate difference for arbitrage [22]. 3.2.3 China's Palm Oil Ship - Buying Increases and Consumption Warms Up - With the increase in palm oil import ship - buying, the domestic palm oil port inventory has gradually risen from a low level. As of the week of June 10, the port palm oil inventory rose to 398,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. However, from the perspective of import profit, both recent and forward imports still had a small loss. In terms of domestic market demand, the catering industry has warmed up in the first half of this year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the catering revenue from January to April 2025 increased by 9.7% year - on - year. The demand for fast food and baking has driven the consumption of palm oil. At the same time, the cost - effectiveness of palm oil is prominent, and food factories have switched formulas, with the substitution rate of baking oil increasing by 20%, which supports the consumption of palm oil [26]. 3.3 Summary - Short - term palm oil market is a game between increasing production and strong demand. Strong export demand can offset some inventory pressure. The current support for international palm oil demand mainly comes from India and China actively purchasing shipments from June to August. However, the decline in EU market demand will drag down global market demand [3][34]. - Currently in the increasing production cycle of Southeast Asian palm oil, the production of palm oil will seasonally increase from June to August, which will offset the pulse - like demand from India, and the global inventory reconstruction cycle has begun. The supply - demand balance sheet clearly points to the peak of inventory accumulation pressure in the third quarter of 2025, but India's pulse - like demand and policy variables may delay the downward trend. Attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the inventory - consumption ratio in August. If India's replenishment ends in August and EU demand does not improve, the increasing production pressure in the palm oil market will dominate the market, and futures prices will face downward risks again [3][34]. - The inventory of domestic palm oil is slowly rising, and the support of low inventory for prices has weakened. In the absence of its own driving force, it will still mainly follow the fluctuations of the international palm oil market [3][36].