生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250612

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs is expected to be weak with fluctuations [4]. - The reasons include sufficient supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 based on sow and piglet data, weak demand support in the second and third quarters, and the possibility of a new low in prices if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Market Overview - On June 11, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.02 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.12 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan or -0.07%, and in Sichuan it was 13.91 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan or 0.51% [6]. - For futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.07%; the 03 contract was 12,775 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08%; the 05 contract was 12,995 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.19%; the 07 contract was 13,215 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.08%; the 09 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04%; the 11 contract was 13,325 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.26% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was 520 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or -2.8% [6]. II. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14]. III. Market Dynamics - On June 11, the number of registered live - pig warehouse receipts was 525 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly about the convergence of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the expected decline in spot prices and the possible increase in future slaughter volume [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 888 lots today, with a position of about 77,400 lots. The highest price was 13,670 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,570 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,600 yuan/ton [2]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes that the farming side has not reduced the weight of pigs, future slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and demand support is limited in the second and third quarters. The long - side logic includes that there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is firm, and although the future slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited and the fourth quarter is the peak consumption season [3]. V. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will be weak with fluctuations [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, demand support is weak in the second and third quarters, a new low in prices may occur if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, and the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].