平安证券晨会纪要-20250612

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Cycle and Industry Comparison - The capital expenditure cycle is a key driver of industry cycles in China, with capital expenditure and PB, ROE changes being interrelated. The cycle is divided into three stages: oversupply leading to performance decline, capital expenditure downtrend improving free cash flow, and supply-side clearing leading to performance recovery [7][8]. - The PB-ROE model indicates significant investment value in the second stage, where PB is low and ROE is expected to improve, and in the third stage, where PB is reasonable and ROE can steadily rise [7][8]. - Recent trends show a contraction in capital expenditure across secondary industries excluding finance and real estate, with an increase in the proportion of industries with positive free cash flow [8][9]. Group 2: Industry Opportunities and Recommendations - The report identifies 26 industries with potential investment opportunities based on supply-side improvements, focusing on consumption, cyclical, advanced manufacturing, technology, and healthcare sectors [8][9]. - A quantitative industry rotation strategy based on free cash flow has been constructed, yielding annualized returns of 11.1% and 13% for the consumption and advanced manufacturing sectors, respectively, outperforming benchmarks by 5.1 and 3.1 percentage points [9]. - Recommended companies include DeYee Co., which has a strong position in emerging markets, and AiRuo Energy, which is expected to benefit from overseas industrial storage [10][13]. Group 3: Energy Equipment and New Energy Sector - The first quarter saw a recovery in the performance of household storage inverter companies, particularly in emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia, where demand is growing [10][12]. - The report highlights the potential for rapid growth in the commercial storage market in Europe, despite a weaker overall demand in the region [10][12]. - Key players such as DeYee Co. and JinLang Technology are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential in emerging markets [10][13]. Group 4: Automotive Industry Insights - The automotive industry's high-end strategy is categorized into two types: companies focusing on their strengths and expanding their lead, and those adopting benchmarking strategies [14][15]. - Recommended companies include Li Auto, Great Wall Motors, and Xiaomi for their distinctive brand advantages and ongoing development [15][16]. - The report notes that stricter regulations on intelligent driving are leading to increased focus on safety and compliance among automotive companies [15][16].