冠通期货资讯早间报-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of various asset classes including international and domestic futures, important macro - economic news, and the performance of financial markets. It reflects the complex and dynamic nature of the global economic and financial environment, with factors such as geopolitical risks, trade policies, and central bank policies influencing market movements. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International oil prices soared, with the US crude oil main contract rising 5.11% to $68.30 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 4.58% to $69.93 per barrel [2] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures up 0.98% at $3376.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.77% at $36.36 per ounce [3] - London base metals mostly declined, with LME nickel down 1.13% at $15145.00 per ton and LME copper down 1.12% at $9647.00 per ton [4] - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) up over 1%, while coking coal, glass, and soda ash down over 1% [5] - US agricultural product futures mostly fell, with CBOT corn down 0.51%, CBOT wheat down 0.09%, and CBOT soybeans down 0.76% [5] Important Information Macro - economic Information - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that mandatory trade policies are not a sustainable solution to current trade tensions [8] - Trump lost hope that Iran would agree to terminate all uranium enrichment activities in a revised nuclear deal but remains determined to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons [8] - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China - US economic and trade relations [8] - In May, China's futures trading market volume and turnover decreased year - on - year by 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [9] - Trump claimed a major victory for the US as the federal appellate court ruled that the US can use tariffs for self - protection [9] - Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1% due to good CPI data [9] - US May unadjusted CPI annual rate rose to 2.4%, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts increased [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - A methanol storage tank fire in Iran's Bushehr Port caused at least three deaths [12] - As of June 9, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.725 million barrels from the previous week [13] - As of June 11, China's methanol port inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 652,200 tons [13] - Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 206,359 kiloliters in the week ending June 7 [14] - A large alumina plant in Shandong adjusted its 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda purchase price down by 10 yuan per ton [14] - In the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.644 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 237,000 barrels [14] Metal Futures - A primary lead smelter in Southwest China plans a one - week maintenance starting late June, with an expected daily lead ingot output reduction of about 300 tons [17] - From June 1 - 8, the retail sales of China's passenger vehicle market reached 343,000 units, a 19% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease from the previous month [17] Black - series Futures - Australia's CML lowered its July offer price for manganese ore to China by $0.15 per ton - degree [19] - Eramet Comilog cut its manganese ore offer price to China by $0.15 per ton - degree [19] - Qinghai Shuohua Silicon Iron Plant plans to reduce production by 90 tons per day [20] - On June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills decreased by 0.11 percentage points, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points [20] - China's national building materials social inventory increased by 1.77 tons, factory inventory decreased by 12.97 tons, and production decreased by 8.16 tons [20] Agricultural Product Futures - As of June 6, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased by 0.02% from the previous week [23] - As of June 4, Argentine farmers sold 1.7579 million tons of 2024/2025 soybeans [23] - TA Securities analyst expects palm oil prices to decline in the second half of 2025 due to strong production and weakening demand [23] - Due to increased import costs and low inventory, the decline of domestic soybean meal prices is limited [23] - Germany's Oilworld expects Indonesia to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025 [24] - On June 11, the actual transaction volume of imported soybeans at the auction was 15,899 tons, with a transaction rate of 13.5% [24] - The estimated sugar beet production in the EU 27 and the UK in 2025/2026 remains at 113 million tons [25] - From June 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% [27] - Market expectations for US soybean and corn export net sales in different market years are provided [27] Financial Markets Finance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting the inclusion of STAR Market ETFs in the Fund Connect platform and optimizing relevant trading mechanisms [29] - A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.52%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.83%, and ChiNext Index up 1.21% [29] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.84%, and related technology and enterprise indices also increased [29] - Insurance funds are accelerating their entry into the stock market, with 7 insurance companies making 15 stake - increasing moves by the end of May [31] - The stock repurchase and stake - increasing re - loan tool is showing its function of stabilizing the capital market, with a total loan amount of 130.625 billion yuan [31] Industry - More than ten mainstream passenger vehicle enterprises promised to unify supplier payment terms within 60 days [32] - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicle sales up 36.9% [32] - The National Certification and Accreditation Administration is promoting CCC certification pilot work in the automobile field [32] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission are promoting the cultivation of bio - manufacturing pilot platforms [33] - Nine departments in Shanghai are promoting green finance development [35] - Zhejiang is supporting the overseas expansion of the game industry [35] - European banks have spent over 1.1 billion euros on senior staff layoffs since 2018 [35] Overseas - US May tariff revenue reached a record high, narrowing the deficit, but the sustainability of tariff revenue is in question [36] - Trump said the federal appellate court's ruling on tariffs was a major victory for the US and there is a possibility of reconciling with Musk [36] - US Treasury Secretary Bezant hopes to serve as Treasury Secretary until 2029, defends the government's spending and tax - cut bill, and is willing to extend the tariff suspension period [38] - Gold has become the second - largest reserve asset of global central banks, with a 20% share in 2024 [38] International Stock Markets - US major stock indices slightly declined, with concerns over Trump's tariff policies and regulatory tightening in the tech sector [39] - European major stock indices showed mixed performance, affected by multiple factors [39] Commodities - In May, China's futures trading market volume and turnover decreased year - on - year, but increased in the January - May period [40] - International oil prices rose significantly, and geopolitical risks and China - US relations are expected to cause oil prices to fluctuate strongly [42] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, influenced by US tariff policies and Fed policy expectations [42] - London base metals mostly declined due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [42] Bonds - The domestic bond market performed strongly, with rumors of the central bank's six - month repurchase inquiry [43] - US Treasury yields declined as May CPI data eased inflation concerns [43] - "New Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach believes US debt is unsustainable and advises increasing non - dollar asset allocation [45] - European bond yields generally rose due to trade policy uncertainties [45] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 11 basis points at the 16:30 close, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up 25 basis points [46] - US May CPI data strengthened market expectations of Fed rate cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and mixed performance of non - US currencies [46]