宝城期货资讯早班车-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting achieved positive results, stabilizing bilateral economic and trade relations [2][14] - The global commodity market shows various trends, with different performances in metals, energy, and agricultural products [5][9][10] - The bond market is performing strongly, and the currency market has complex interest - rate changes [21][22] - The stock market has certain trends, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks rising, and insurance funds accelerating their entry into the market [31][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In Q1 2025, GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [1] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, slightly down [1] - In April 2025, social financing scale increment decreased significantly compared to the previous month, and financial institution RMB loans also decreased [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Metals - Spot gold reached a four - day high due to concerns about the Middle East situation. Central banks are increasing gold reserves at a record pace [5] - Copper, tin, lead, and other metal inventories in the London Metal Exchange decreased, with some reaching multi - year lows [6] - Zimbabwe will ban lithium concentrate exports from 2027 [6] 3.2.2 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On June 11, 19 steel mills raised scrap steel purchase prices [7] 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Administration will carry out hydrogen energy pilot projects [8] - The European market drives the growth of US natural gas futures trading [9] - The global oil and gas industry outlook is deteriorating due to factors such as US tariffs [9] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - China's cotton planting area has reached 4482.3 million mu this year, with good growth, especially in Xinjiang [10] - Global coffee prices soared in 2024, and Brazil's coffee production decline affected the market [10] - Argentina's wheat production forecast for the 2025/26 season decreased [11] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 11, the central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 509 billion yuan [13] 3.3.2 Key News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting achieved positive results [14] - As of May, over 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds were issued, completing over 80% of this year's target [15] - Many provinces have adjusted their budgets to increase borrowing and spending [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market - The bond market performed strongly, with rumors of the central bank inquiring about six - month term repurchase. Treasury bond futures rose [21] - European bond yields generally rose, while US bond yields fell [24] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [25] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that convertible bond valuations are expected to rise [27] - CITIC Fixed Income argues that China does not have an asset - liability balance sheet recession problem [27] - CICC Research Report shows that China's consumer market features "consumption segmentation" [28] 3.4 Stock Market - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting the inclusion of Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs in the fund transfer platform [31] - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks rose, with insurance funds accelerating their entry into the market [31][32] - The stock - repurchase and share - increase re - loan tool is stabilizing the capital market [32]