数据点评：美国5月CPI超预期回落，料降息至少延迟至9月

Inflation Data - The U.S. May CPI inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 2.4%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year due to a low base effect[1] - Core CPI inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year[1] - Month-on-month, core CPI inflation slowed from 0.24% in April to 0.13% in May, below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI growth rate decreased from 0.22% in April to 0.08% in May, also below the market expectation of 0.2%[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, exceeding market expectations of 126,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.187% in April to 4.244% in May[1] - Labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% in April to 62.4% in May[1] Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices fell month-on-month from 0.06% in April to -0.04% in May, with clothing seeing the largest decline at -0.42%[2] - Super core services CPI growth slowed to 0.06% in May from 0.23% in April, influenced by declines in transportation and healthcare prices[2] - Owner's equivalent rent inflation rate decreased to 0.27% in May from 0.36% in April, indicating a potential end to previously high rental inflation[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in June and July, with a potential rate cut delayed until at least September[4] - The Fed may consider a total of two rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, unless labor market data deteriorates significantly[4] - If tariffs are fully implemented, the Fed may need to adjust its stance, potentially leading to larger rate cuts of 75-100 basis points[5]