宝城期货国债期货早报-20250612

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate strongly. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being the marginal weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that yesterday, all national debt futures oscillated and rebounded slightly. The results of Sino - US economic and trade measures in London are highly uncertain, and investors are waiting and watching. The recently released macro - economic data has weakened, increasing the market's expectation of future monetary easing, providing strong bottom support for national debt futures. However, currently, fiscal policy has stronger marginal effectiveness than monetary policy. In the short term, financial policies need to wait for policy guidance from the Lujiazui Forum on June 18, and the possibility of continuous interest rate cuts in the short term is low. Overall, it is expected that national debt futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Time - cycle and Variety - specific Views - For TL2509, short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and stronger, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the marginal weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. Price -行情 and Driving Logic - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is oscillatory and stronger, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The driving factors include the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade measures, weakening macro - economic data, and the need to wait for policy guidance from the Lujiazui Forum [5].