饲料养殖产业日报-20250612

1. Investment Ratings The report does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The current situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with each product facing unique supply - demand dynamics and price trends. The overall market is in a state of multi - factor influence, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short to medium term [1][2][5][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Product 3.1. Pig - Short - term: On June 12, the national pig price showed a pattern of decline in the north and stability in the south. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation, with the 07 contract having a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 12800 - 13000; the 09 contract having a pressure level of 14000 - 14200 and a support level of 13100 - 13300; the 11 contract having a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 13000 - 13200. The strategy is to wait for a rebound to the pressure level and then short [1]. - Medium - to - long - term: From June to September 2024, the supply is increasing, and in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure is still large, and the long - term price rebound is under pressure [1]. 3.2. Egg - Short - term: As the rainy season approaches, egg demand seasonally weakens, and the supply is relatively sufficient, so the egg price support is insufficient. The 08 and 09 contracts are mainly treated as bearish, waiting for a rebound to short. The 08 contract should focus on the 3650 - 3750 pressure level, and the 09 contract on the 3770 - 3820 pressure level [2]. - Medium - term: From July to August 2025, there will be more newly - opened laying hens, and the long - term supply increase trend may be difficult to reverse [2]. - Long - term: In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may be alleviated, and attention should be paid to the elimination and chicken disease situations in the third quarter [2]. 3.3. Oil - Palm oil: In the short term, the 08 contract is in a dilemma of rising or falling, and is expected to fluctuate in the 3700 - 3800 range. In the long run, the trend of inventory accumulation in Malaysia remains unchanged, and it is difficult to provide continuous upward momentum [5]. - Soybean oil: In the short term, the 07 contract of US soybeans is expected to oscillate widely in the 1030 - 1080 range. In China, the inventory of soybean oil is expected to increase. In the long run, the price decline is limited due to factors such as the tightening of new - crop soybean supply [6]. - Rapeseed oil: ICE rapeseed is expected to rise moderately in the short term. In China, the rapeseed oil price is supported by the expectation of supply tightening after June. The inventory is currently at a historically high level, but it is expected to decrease in the far - month [7]. - Overall: The overall fundamentals of oils are mixed, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. From the third quarter, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to oscillate in the short term, with operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8300, and 9000 - 9500 respectively. Attention can be paid to the strategy of narrowing the oil - meal ratio [7][8]. 3.4. Soybean Meal - Short - term: US soybeans are affected by weather, and the price is expected to be strong. In China, from June to August, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal will increase, which will limit the increase of near - month contracts and spot prices [8]. - Medium - to - long - term: The cost increases and the influence of weather disturbances make the price trend stable and strong. The M2509 contract is mainly long on dips, and attention should be paid to the support performance at 2950 - 2980 [8]. 3.5. Corn - Short - term: The market supply - demand game intensifies, and the corn price has support. The spot is strong, and the futures price oscillates [9]. - Medium - to - long - term: The supply - demand relationship tightens marginally, which drives the price up, but the upward space is limited by substitutes. The 07 contract oscillates at a high level (2280 - 2400), and attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9]. 3.6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the trading prices and price changes of various products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [10].