原油：多重利好共振，多单、正套持有

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that multiple positive factors are resonating in the crude oil market, and it recommends holding long positions and positive spreads. The current trend strength of crude oil is rated as 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Information Market Data - WTI July crude oil futures rose $3.17 per barrel, or 4.88%, to $68.15 per barrel; Brent August crude oil futures rose $2.90 per barrel, or 4.33%, to $69.77 per barrel; SC2507 crude oil futures rose 16.20 yuan per barrel, or 3.37%, to 497.40 yuan per barrel [2]. Inventory Data - EIA reported that commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432 million barrels, a decline of 0.84%. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.891 million barrels per day, a 0.53% increase from the same period last year. U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending June 6 was - 3.644 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.304 million barrels. U.S. EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending June 6 was - 403,000 barrels, compared with a previous value of 576,000 barrels [3]. - PAJ reported that Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 206,359 kiloliters in the week ending June 7 [3]. - As of the week ending June 9, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 17.341 million barrels, an increase of 1.725 million barrels from the previous week. Among them, the light distillate inventory increased by 76,000 barrels to 7.802 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory increased by 135,000 barrels to 787,000 barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.514 million barrels to 8.752 million barrels [6]. Production and Export Data - Russia's main offline refining capacity in July was increased by 21% from the previous plan to 3.2 million tons [3]. - From January to May this year, Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline increased by 48% year - on - year to 767,000 tons [3]. - Despite political tensions in Libya, its crude oil production in May slightly increased to 1.23 million barrels per day, a 12 - year high, and its crude oil exports in May reached a multi - year high of 1.26 million barrels per day [3]. Geopolitical and Negotiation Information - Trump expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran nuclear deal. The possibility of the sixth round of U.S. - Iran negotiations scheduled for this weekend in Oman is decreasing [3]. - The EU Commission proposed an 18th round of sanctions against Russia, suggesting lowering the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel. Putin extended counter - measures against the price cap on Russian oil and oil products until December 31, 2025 [3]. - There are signs of U.S. diplomatic withdrawals in multiple Middle Eastern countries, and Israel's military is on high alert, fearing an escalation of conflict with Iran. The UK warned that the intensifying tension in the Middle East may lead to an "escalation of military activities" [3][4]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander - in - Chief stated that they are ready with upgraded missiles for any combat [6]. - The U.S. military authorized the voluntary departure of military families from the Middle East due to increased tensions with Iran [6]. Other Information - The U.S. Energy Secretary expected to sign more liquefied natural gas export agreements and an increase in LNG supply to India [6]. - The World Bank warned that a further 10% increase in the average U.S. tariff could lead to a global trade standstill in the second half of 2025 [6]. - The Trump administration may extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period if its major trading partners show "good faith" in negotiations [6].