山金期货黑色板块日报-20250612

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with weak expectations remaining unchanged. The iron ore market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory, and the price is in a large - range oscillation pattern [2][4] Section Summaries 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Information: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, briefly boosting market confidence. The real estate is in the bottom - building process, and the demand for steel is still marginally weakening [2] - Supply and Demand Situation: Last week's data showed a decline in production, factory inventory, and social inventory, and a decrease in apparent demand. The peak season of apparent demand has passed, and demand will weaken further with the arrival of rainy seasons and high - temperature weather. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [2] - Technical Analysis: The futures price has a strong rebound and has stood above the 10 - day moving average for three consecutive days, indicating that it will enter a low - level oscillation and may have a second bottom - probing [2] - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Buy at low prices after the second bottom - probing [2] - Data Summary: - Price: The closing price of the thread steel main contract is 2991 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day and last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3108 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous day and 0.36% from last week [2] - Production: The national building materials steel mill's thread steel production is 218.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%; the hot - rolled coil production is 328.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [2] - Inventory: The social inventory of five major varieties is 935.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%; the thread steel social inventory is 385.62 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 264.29 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52% [2] 2. Iron Ore - Market Information: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, reducing uncertainties and briefly boosting market confidence [4] - Supply and Demand Situation: The steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on the futures price [4] - Technical Analysis: The futures price is in a large - range oscillation pattern, with a bottom and a ceiling. Attention should be paid to the future breakthrough direction [4] - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and avoid chasing up or selling down [4] - Data Summary: - Price: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 707 yuan/dry ton, up 1.22% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week [4] - Supply: Australian iron ore shipments are 1872.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.06%; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 641.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.35% [4] - Inventory: The total port inventory is 13826.69 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%; the port trade ore inventory is 9385.44 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55% [4] 3. Industry News - On June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills was 88.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.51%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output of sample steel mills was 241.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [6] - According to Buguwang, the national building materials social inventory is 552.24 tons, an increase of 1.77 tons from last week, up 0.32%; the factory inventory is 313.18 tons, a decrease of 12.97 tons from last week, down 3.98%; the production is 413.77 tons, a decrease of 8.16 tons from last week, down 1.93% [6]