长江期货黑色产业日报-20250612

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced, and it may accumulate inventory slightly in the later stage. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to low valuation and a shift to looser supply - demand [1]. - Iron ore is supported by continuous steel mill production and negotiations. The price is mainly affected by macro news, and the port inventory is expected to continue to decline. The iron ore futures are expected to fluctuate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. - The coking coal market supply is in a loose pattern, and the short - term market may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to coal mine inventory, coking enterprise profit, and steel terminal demand [3]. - The coke supply - demand pattern remains loose. Although supply has a marginal contraction, demand support is weak. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Rebar - On Wednesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated strongly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 10 - contract basis was 139 (-7) [1]. - Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The production of rebar decreased for two consecutive weeks, and inventory depletion slowed down [1]. - Currently, the rebar futures price has fallen near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. The price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 724 yuan/wet ton (+55), the Platts 62% index was 95.75 dollars/ton (+0.80), and the PBF basis was 57 yuan/ton (-3) [1]. - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,839.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104.04 [1]. - The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the futures are expected to fluctuate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal is in a loose pattern. Some coal mines have staged production cuts, but most maintain normal production. The procurement of the intermediate link is cautious, and the signing of coal mines is average [3]. - The downstream procurement of Mongolian coal is cautious, and the actual transactions at the port are cold. After the third round of coke price cuts, coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and steel mills mainly purchase on a rigid - demand basis [3]. - The coking coal market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to coal mine inventory depletion, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand [3]. Coke - The production of coking enterprises shows a differentiated pattern. Most maintain normal operation, but there is some passive production reduction due to profit pressure and environmental inspections, and the overall start - up level has declined [3]. - The steel market is entering the off - season, terminal demand is limited, and steel mills' rigid demand for coke exists but with insufficient growth. Some steel mills purchase cautiously and replenish inventory as needed [3]. - The coke market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. Industry News - From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.826 million and 12.748 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 45.2% and 44% [6]. - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a consensus on the measure framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' call on June 5th [6]. - As of the end of May, more than 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds had been issued nationwide, completing over 80% of the 2 - trillion - yuan stock implicit debt replacement quota for this year [6].